Election 2023: Audrey Young - New Zealand First, National Party at crossroads as coalition talks hit ‘jagged edge’

OPINION:

This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.

Welcome to the Politics Briefing. We are at the stage of coalition talks where it becomes clear that 6.08 per cent of the party vote can also mean a 100 per cent veto on other parties. New Zealand First does not support National’s policy of partially funding its tax cuts by partially lifting the foreign buyers ban on residential housing - National’s dubiously estimated revenue of $2.9 billion over four years would come from a 15 per cent tax on homes sold for over $2 million.

The question about relaxing the ban will be whether New Zealand First is uncompromising in its objections and exercises its veto, or whether its objections can be traded away for perhaps a commitment to more of its policies in the final agreement.

New Zealand First negotiator Shane Jones has this week been referring to the foreign-buyer policy as “the jagged edge” of tax policy.

Leader Winston Peters said he supported the ban on foreign buyers in 2018 and his stance had not changed. But Peters was careful in his language, not setting out bottom lines but saying the party’s priority was New Zealand buyers: “In a property-owning democracy the government’s first priority for home ownership should be New Zealanders – not allowing a gross distortion of the market by deep-pocketed foreigners who don’t care about struggling Kiwis and who just want profits and an asset bolthole if things go wrong in their own country.”

The issue could have been sorted out last week if National and New Zealand First had done more than relationship-building during the three weeks of vote counting. New Zealand First appeared reluctant to do more. However, Luxon has made the right decision to forgo attendance at Apec because getting an amicable agreement has to be his top priority. And in signalling his willingness to do so yesterday he has given himself more leverage.

Meanwhile, Luxon on Saturday launched the campaign of list MP Andrew Bayly to be re-elected to the Port Waikato seat in the November 25 byelection. And alongside them was Nancy Lu, who will replace Bayly as a list MP if he regains the seat. Bayly’s only real competition is New Zealand First MP Casey Costello, formerly of Hobson’s Pledge and the Taxpayers’ Union. I had never met her before but sat down with her last week for an interview and she has a very interesting back story.

As one of the New Zealand Herald’s longest-servers, I was asked to write an essay for its 160th birthday which we are marking this week and I’ve included that in the selection below.

Quote unquote

“You’ve got to get three people to agree and no one person can make the other ones agree or set the timing that they agree” - Act leader David Seymour on the ABCs of coalition building.

Micro quiz

Until this election, National has held West Coast-Tasman for just one term since MMP began in 1996. Which term and which National MP held it? (Answer below.)

Brickbat

West Coast-Tasman MP Maureen Pugh. Photo / Supplied

New West Coast-Tasman MP Maureen Pugh for being unwilling or unable to say whether her party was opposed to resuming milling native trees on the West Coast. “I can’t answer that today,” she told Q&A’s Whena Owen.

Bouquet

National leader Christopher Luxon for accepting that some things can’t be rushed: “I’m not selecting a flatmate. I’m actually selecting partners to be in government... so getting it right is important,” he told Newstalk ZB. “We need another week I think to get it all squared away.”

Latest political news and views

Coalition talks: Act leader David Seymour says a meeting between himself, Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon and NZ First’s Winston Peters could take place today.

Foreign buyers: NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones has indicated that the party is not willing to budge on National’s plan to allow wealthy foreign buyers back into the housing market.

Public spending: The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment is canning its $27-a-head subsidy for Christmas parties as part of broader spending cuts set to intensify under the next Government.

Opinion: Simon Wilson offers some suggestions for the new National-led Government on fixing Auckland.

Drugs: A drug policy expert says New Zealand is so “awash” with methamphetamine that a ban on cold medicines containing the precursor ingredient is largely “redundant”.

Casey Costello: There aren’t many people who can say they are standing for Parliament 22 days after being elected to Parliament, but Casey Costello is one.

Port Waikato byelection: National’s Port Waikato byelection candidate, Andrew Bayly, is frustrated there are only seven places to make an advanced vote from Monday.

501 deportations: Deportations to New Zealand under Australia’s controversial 501 policy have halved under a “common sense approach” adopted by the Government there.

Israel-Hamas war: The Act Party wants former Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta to explain why she disagreed with a draft tweet concerning Hamas’ October attack on Israel.

ETS: The incoming government is likely to have to contend with a billion-dollar hole in its books, as the fourth and final auction of units under the Emissions Trading Scheme for the year isn’t expected to clear on December 6.

Opinion: Act and New Zealand First are working on their relationship - and that may make National a tad nervous, writes Claire Trevett.

Opinion: As the Herald celebrates its 160th birthday, Audrey Young reflects on the power of media in holding politicians to account.

Quiz answer: Chris Auchinvole from 2008 to 2011

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.