Claire Trevett: Trade gains likely to dominate agenda for new PM's first visit

Malcolm Turnball arrives at the Auckland International Airport. Photo / Getty Images

When Prime Minister John Key meets his new Australian counterpart, Malcolm Turnbull, today it will be the fourth Australian Prime Minister he has met since he came to power in 2008. With each, he has raised the same issue - the rights of New Zealanders in Australia. With each, he has walked away with warm words about "family" ringing in his ears but nothing concrete in his hands.

This time is unlikely to be much different. Key may get a small concession on the issue of deportation of criminals back to New Zealand. But it is likely to be minimal. Hardened crims are not exactly a demographic that tugs at the heart strings and in a political sense, Turnbull has more to gain from a hard line than a bleeding heart.

In Australian media, anonymous "Government sources" have been seeding talk that New Zealanders are among the worst criminals Australia has and only got in to begin with because of the open borders. Key has countered by pointing to the many good, hardworking New Zealanders in Australia who pay their taxes and, as a group, have lower incarceration and unemployment rates than Australians themselves. It's a PR war Key cannot win.

Despite Key's joke about the All Blacks, the talks won't just stop at comparing notes on big-noting about the rugby and discussing his latest confessions about peeing in the shower. There is the economy on which Key can flaunt his new surplus.

There is Iraq, where New Zealand troops are working with Australia's on training local forces. It is likely Australia will want New Zealand to stay on in the training roles at least beyond the two year limit Key has set.

But top of the list is likely to be trade; they will compare notes on how the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal has gone down in their respective countries. The European Union has put Australia and New Zealand on the list of countries it aims to start free trade negotiations with - something New Zealand has pursued for years.

The visit to New Zealand will be Turnbull's first international trip as Prime Minister. Australian media report it is the first time in memory that New Zealand has been the first destination for an Australian Prime Minister. With good reason, Key has talked up the significance of that as showing the importance Turnbull puts on the relationship.

The Prime Ministers of both countries traditionally have an annual formal meeting in February. But Australian Prime Ministers have shown different levels of enthusiasm for their little sibling across the Ditch. John Howard put effort in but Kevin Rudd barely bothered to pat us on the head as he passed.

In 2011, Julia Gillard was the first Australian leader to come to this side of the Tasman for a formal visit since John Howard in 2007. She visited again in 2013. Prime Minister Tony Abbott also visited twice - first in February this year and again for Anzac commemorations.

As for Turnbull, he will be hoping the apparent jinx on Australian prime ministerial visits to New Zealand skips a generation. For all three of his predecessors, visits were overshadowed by rumours of coups back home. Rudd was rolled by Gillard in 2010 before he even got on the plane. Gillard's visit in February 2013 was overshadowed by talks of a reverse-spill by Rudd. There were questions about whether Abbott would still be Prime Minister by the end of his trip in February after his Foreign Minister Julie Bishop refused to say whether she backed him or the man who replaced him six months later: one Malcolm Turnbull.

That said, given Australia's all-consuming pastime of engineering spills, it would be more exceptional if a prime minister went overseas and there wasn't one.