PM Christopher Luxon’s bid for mid-40s poll will require him to eat Act and NZ First’s lunch, Claire Trevett writes

OPINION

On Sunday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will deliver his first State of the Nation speech since taking over the top job, and from the teasers beforehand it seems he intends to take the label literally.

The State of the Nation speeches can be a chance for a new Prime Minister to show what kind of a PM they will be, or to put a stake in the ground on an issue. They can also be used to announce a big move in a focus area. Done well, they can also be effective in cementing someone firmly in people’s minds as a Prime Minister.

Luxon is certainly not trying to stoke up expectations of soaring oratory ahead of his.

He seems to see it as a chance to do what is on the label: set out the state of the nation. Luxon is expected to deliver what amounts to an updated version of the state of things, across a range of areas and what the Government will do about them.

It is intended as a scene-setter – and may well be aimed at trying to highlight the difficulties National faces as it tries to do its much-talked about “turnaround” of the country’s fortunes, both economically and socially.

Luxon’s state of the nation last year contained a chunky policy announcement of childcare tax rebates, aimed at grabbing some of Labour’s vote. Otherwise it was a grab bag of a diatribe about Labour, a bit about his own background and what he wanted to do. It was not bad, nor was it amazing.

The difference between last year’s state of the nation and this year’s, is that last year the problems he set out – from inflation to wars – were all Labour’s problem. This year, they are his.

If this year’s speech ends up little more than an extension of Luxon’s oft-repeated cataloguing of what he sees as the woeful state Labour has left the country in, it risks being a disappointment.

Whether by design or lack of effort, Luxon’s speeches at both Rātana and Waitangi were underwhelming. They were prosaic efforts that gave no new information nor insights into Luxon, or where heart decisions might triumph over head decisions. That was particularly the case with his Waitangi speech - not just because of the bits he had cut and pasted from elsewhere. That occasion calls for something a bit special: whether it be reflective, optimistic or simply reassuring.

One of the questions hanging over his head has been whether he would be a Prime Minister or more of a Prime Manager.

The manager part of him has served him fairly well so far, especially in dealing with teething problems with coalition issues.

He may have fumbled on occasion. He has been careful not to let differences of opinion air out in public too much. The Act v National differences of opinion over the Treaty Principles Bill was the most perilous so far.

That side of him has also meant he has been okay to sit back as coalition partners take centre-stage on an issue, rather than trying to hog the oxygen for himself. That is good for coalition harmony, but not necessarily for Luxon. Both Act leader David Seymour and NZ First leader Winston Peters know how to get and keep attention. Luxon is the Prime Minister. He does not want to emulate them, but nor does he want to end up in their shadows.

Polls since the election have seen National bumping up close to the 40 per cent mark it had hoped to hit on election night.

Luxon’s KPI for this term will be to get his party over the 40 per cent mark and into the 44 to 46 per cent zone enjoyed by the previous National Government and his mentor Sir John Key. That is the zone at which he no longer has to cede so much to coalition partners. Getting there will inevitably mean he has to scrap with Act and NZ First for votes come 2026.

Key did not hold up his popularity for so long purely because of what he called his sunny disposition. He had to work for it.

It did not come solely by doing things that he had said he would do, although that was critical. It was as much about him stepping up as a Prime Minister as it was about doing things. Luxon has started the doing things part of it, but the second bit is a work in progress. His view appears to be that the results will do the talking for him: the trouble is that it can take time to get the results.

Luxon will be happy with where he is at in the polls at this point. He has not enjoyed the instant Key-esque surge in popularity – but he has nudged up. National will be quietly hoping that indicates he is an acquired taste and voters start to tick over.

Some bits of that may be easy. There will be some nervousness over whether there will be grumbling among its base over Luxon’s stand on the Treaty Principles Bill. However, to National supporters, being in Government is usually the key objective. Anything that imperils that – including boisterous coalition partners – is not enjoyed and may equally well serve to drive support to him.

This first year of a new government is also a time for the new opposition to walk carefully.

On paper, it is a good time for an opposition, replete with rookie mistakes, leaks and changes being made that are not necessarily popular.

In practice, it is a nightmare period because nobody is really listening. Voters tend to give new governments a chance and overlook early mistakes.

New governments tend to kick off by doing a lot and hogging all the oxygen. That is particularly the case this time round, when there are three parties all pushing through changes in a lot of areas.

Leaders of the Opposition can react to this in different ways: either plug away, hold up your base and use the time to start knuckling out new ways to woo back voters’ hearts and minds, or find dramatic ways to get yourself in the headlines.

The risk with the former is the caucus starts to get impatient with the lack of attention and static polls, and decides someone else will do the job. The risk with the latter is you’ve made such a spectacle of yourself the caucus decides you are the problem, and someone else will do the job.

Thus far, Labour leader Chris Hipkins is holding his nerve – he’s seen this before. He has been fairly low-key so far beyond trying to capitalise on the mistakes that are inevitable in a new government, and niggle at the unity of the three parties which make up the Government.

Labour’s polling is holding fairly steadily at about 29 or 30 per cent, rather than collapsing. At some point he will have to step up a bit more and get those numbers up a bit more, but right now the voters’ attention is on those three parties: National, Act and NZ First.