OPINION
Just what are NZ First and Act up to? The last two days have apparently been fruitful in terms of National’s ability to pull together its three-legged stool of government with enough putty to stop a leg falling off at the very start.
That is less to do with National, and more to do with NZ First leader Winston Peters and Act’s David Seymour holding their own talks without National in the room.
Both emerged from the second meeting – a very short 10-minute one - looking a little smug. One of them even referred to it as a “blossoming relationship”. It’s a beautiful thing to behold.
But it may also make National a tad nervous.
On one occasion during his wanderings from meetings, NZ First’s deputy leader Shane Jones used a line from Shakespeare’s The Merry Wives of Windsor.
Another Shakespeare line starting to come to mind is Macbeth’s “double, double toil and trouble” as the witches brew up their “charm of powerful trouble”.
NZ First and Act are starting to form an alliance, and working out how they might be able to force National’s hand further on some issues. The way both sides see it, using their collective strength is logical: turning up and saying “we both want this” would have more chance of getting it.
They have also decided that if it is going to work, they have to do it now before agreements are tied down. Once the agreements are in place, there is little wriggle room.
Yesterday’s talks were aimed at agreeing to do just that. The full negotiating teams of the two parties were in those talks. They ended after 10 minutes, and Seymour emerged to say they had been “productive” and he was very happy with them.
More talks between the two are expected this weekend, to talk more about areas in which they can exercise their joint muscle and club together against National.
The smaller parties here do not usually club together in such a fashion - but one pointed to it happening in Germany.
For National, the most concerning area will be around its tax cuts promise: something both Act and NZ First have reservations about. It has already been a sticking point in the talks and is problematic for National because it is its bottom-line promise. The issues are not so much around the tax cuts as the timing, scale and the way National intends to pay for them.
NZ First in particular is opposed to reopening the door to foreign buyers, and this is something it will be fighting hard not to back down on.
There is also common ground on the Treaty and co-governance (Peters is opposed to Seymour’s wish for a referendum on the Treaty principles but does want changes to the inclusion of the Treaty principles in laws, its application to resource management laws and is opposed to the Marine and Coastal Area Act.)
National does not want to spend the entire term fighting over race issues.
This move from enemies to frenemies for Act and NZ First – especially Seymour and Peters - is no small feat. The short-term goal is gaining ground against National, but all three will be hoping it also results in a constructive relationship that will help keep the Government on a stable footing.
Until that happens, NZ First will not trust Act easily and vice versa: Act has not been uncritical of National, but has long been allied with it and Seymour has a longstanding relationship with Luxon. The concern will be that if sides have to be taken, that is where Act will default.
NZ First will be wary of anything that looks remotely like double-dealing as the talks continue.
Today Act is set to meet with National again, but as of last night there was no scheduled meeting between National and NZ First. That can, of course, change.
There will be meetings between Act and NZ First – NZ First is keen to sort out that area before it returns to National.
Luxon’s hopes of getting to the Apec summit in San Francisco are still in the balance.
Today, the Labour Government will have to be sworn in again to continue its caretaker duties. Luxon would have to leave for Apec on Wednesday.
Between now and then, the agreements have to be finalised. As things stand, Act has a draft agreement but NZ First does not. They have to agree on their own deals, and on each other’s.
Then both Act and NZ First have to get their caucuses and boards to sign off on it all.
Those approvals can happen relatively quickly once the details are in place. But the other issue is the long-term stability of the arrangement.
Act and NZ First are increasingly of the view that the talks and relationship-building efforts should not be rushed simply to meet the Apec deadline. However, there are still hopes that if they can sort out their differences – and their common areas – together before returning to National, it could be swift after that point.
It has at least been a more entertaining week than the radio silence that preceded it.
The shift back to Wellington of coalition talks resulted in the re-emergence of the tradition of the great Winston stakeout: media waiting on all the routes he might take, seeking to capture the few grunts of largely meaningless nonsense he might bestow on the microphones.
The whole precinct joins in this game. Staff and other MPs happily report sightings: Shane Jones and Chris Bishop having coffee at the Bolton, NZ First having drinkies in the Sofitel lounge, Luxon out for a run, Bishop in the gym, Peters speaking in unhappy tones to his aide Darroch Ball on the travelator at 11.20am. We know NZ First’s crew ate dinners at Portofino, then at Dumpling House on the Terrace and then at the Green Parrot.
Peters models himself on a Carmelite nun for this tradition, with only an occasional lapse into full sentences.
Jones is prone to over-compensating for his leader’s reticence. He told media he’d been to Farmers to buy some singlets.
He erupts with cryptic references, usually in the form of literary quotes. So far we have had Thomas Becket and the aforementioned Merry Wives of Windsor: “Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.”
The next day Jones’ script of choice was the scripture: “Galatians 6:9.”
That verse is “Let us not become weary in doing good, for at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up.”
Thus far we have not yet had his choice of an ancient Māori proverb (sometimes one of doubtful provenance), and that presumably means the talks are not quite done.
Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.
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