Prime Minister Christopher Luxon begins one of the most difficult weeks of his leadership today, following last week’s horror poll that showed National on track to chalk up one of its worst-ever election results.
On Monday morning, he re-confirmed he would not be resigning and “hand on heart” would be the National leader at the election. He hadn’t spoken to his MPs specifically about the poll results as he didn’t believe he “needed to”.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking, Luxon said he has “absolutely not” been considering his future over the weekend.
Asked about his reaction to the poll on Friday, Luxon said that after attending local events he realised “all hell had broken loose and taken on a life of its own”. That prompted him to go on ZB on Friday evening to hose down speculation of an imminent resignation, he said.
The Prime Minister denied being under pressure, saying there is “pressure in this job every day” and “my job is pretty straight forward”
“The New Zealand public want me to make sure we lower the cost of living by growing the economy, and I don’t need polls to tell me that. I talk to Kiwis every day about that, and that’s the reality of it.”
The Herald can reveal further details of that poll, the March Taxpayers Union-Curia poll, which show Luxon’s net favourability has fallen three points to -19%, well behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins on -5%.
Luxon is also more unpopular than NZ First Leader Winston Peters who has a net favourability of -8% and two of the people tipped as his potential replacement, Chris Bishop with a net favourability rating of -14% and Erica Stanford with a net favourability of -16%.
A net favourability rating is measured asking people whether they have a favourable or unfavourable view of someone and subtracting the unfavourable views from the favourable views to come up with a net rating.
Luxon’s rating appears to be held back by the number of voters who have an unfavourable view of him, which was 46% this month, 8 points higher than Hipkins, 6 points higher than Peters.
A net 15% of people think New Zealand is on the “wrong track”. Pollsters tend to think a government is more likely to be re-elected when most voters think the country is on the right track.
On Friday night, Luxon told Newstalk ZB he would “absolutely” not be resigning.
The Prime Minister, speaking to Breakfast on TVNZ on Monday, said his position had not changed over the weekend.
Referring to the poll which has National on 28.4%, he said these numbers “won’t be happening on election day”.
There was no number that would force his resignation and he was confident he would not be rolled as leader.
“I don’t need polls to tell me what is on New Zealanders’ minds. I talk to them every day and it’s really obvious they need us to fix the economy so they can lower the cost of living.”
He said more people needed to start “feeling the benefits of the recovery”.
The Prime Minister pointed to positive changes in law and order as well as education.
On RNZ, Luxon said he didn’t speak to his MPs over the weekend about the poll results as he believed he didn’t “need to”. He said he had their support.
“I haven’t needed to,” Luxon said.
He said he spoke with his team consistently about politics and challenges facing the country so he didn’t need an explicit conversation about poll results.
Luxon described his caucus as “very unified”.
“I have got a job to do which is to help Kiwis who are frustrated by the cost of living and the pace of our economic recovery,” Luxon said.
The Prime Minister said he would ensure National was focused on the issues that matter.
“We know the major challenges of this economy. That is what this election is going to be all about.”
Earlier, National’s Simeon Brown told Ryan Bridge on Newstalk ZB that the party caucus was “in complete support of our leader”.
“We are completely behind Chris Luxon, very focused on winning in November, and making sure New Zealanders are reminded the challenges we are facing today are a direct result of the decisions made by Chris Hipkins and the Labour Party.”
He said National accepted there were still “challenges” facing New Zealanders but again lay the blame for them on Labour.
It will be a very public-facing day for the Prime Minister and he will be keenly watched for his reaction to last week’s shock poll and his ability to reassure his MPs that he is the right person for the job.
He will chair Cabinet this afternoon before fronting his weekly post-Cabinet press conference.
Parliament is sitting this week, which means Luxon will be more public-facing than usual. Unlike his predecessors, he regularly goes for days without a media appearance.
He attended the Golden Shears in Masterton on Thursday and an event put on by National’s senior’s subgroup, SuperBlues, with Simeon Brown on Friday, but did not hold stand-ups for national media either day.
Luxon kept a low profile over the weekend, cancelling a visit to the Auckland Boat Show, although the Herald understands this appearance was cancelled prior to last week’s poll.
The Prime Minister will face his caucus on Tuesday at their weekly meeting. That event will be crucial for Luxon to give confidence to his MPs, particularly those in marginal seats and with low list rankings, that he has what it takes to save their jobs.
He is likely to be in Parliament on Wednesday, which is likely to be his last engagement there before a one week recess, which will give Luxon and his leadership a breather.
Bishop, who headed an embryonic coup against Luxon last year, is in India at the moment. Bishop, the Associate Sports and Recreation Minister, is visiting the country for the men’s Twenty20 Cricket World Cup.
Last Friday’s Taxpayers Union-Curia poll, revealed early in the Herald, had National on 28.4%, just under three points above the party’s dreadful 2020 result. On those numbers, the party would shed 12 MPs.
Luxon’s leadership appeared precarious on Friday morning. While no MPs outwardly expressed an intention to roll him, his supporters went quiet on Friday morning as the party appeared to be processing the poll.
Luxon’s deputy Nicola Willis appeared on Newstalk ZB’s Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills, saying she was “not happy with that number”.
“I don’t think our National Party team would be happy with that number. I don’t think the Prime Minister would be satisfied with that number,” she said.
Willis, while expressing support for Luxon, acknowledged it hadn’t been a “great week for the Prime Minister”.
Friday ended with Luxon breaking his radio silence for an unscheduled interview on ZB’s Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive in which he hosed down speculation he was about to quit, saying he was “absolutely not” going to resign.
Speculation and reaction continued over the weekend.
A ute belonging to National’s Northland MP Grant McCallum was spotted driving with the words “BYE BYE LUXON” etched into the car’s dirty back window.
McCallum eventually spotted this and confirmed to the Herald the offending slogan was washed off.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday March 1 and Tuesday March 3, 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.1% were undecided on the party vote question.