Budget 2024: Minister accepts 500 police boost might not be achievable as promised

Associate Police Minister Casey Costello accepts it's going to be a challenge to meet the 500 target. Photo / Bevan Conley

Associate Police Minister Casey Costello accepts it might not be achievable to train 500 extra police officers by the end of November next year, a central law and order commitment in National and New Zealand First’s coalition agreement.

The NZ First MP says she’ll give it her utmost and is optimistic, pointing to a “significant uplift in inquiries” from people wanting to join police and a reliance this Government’s approach to policing will convince officers to stay and attract new ones.

However, she acknowledges the challenges faced in reaching the target of 10,711 sworn officers by November 27 next year, namely the fact they’ll need to recruit about 900 on top of that to account for attrition - a total of 1400.

The commitment to increase frontline police staff was a central part of yesterday’s police Budget announcement, which allocated more than $220 million over four years to achieve and sustain that workforce level.

As per the coalition agreement, the Government had committed to training 500 extra police in the first two years.

Costello, who was delegated responsibility for the policy by Police Minister Mark Mitchell, stated there were 10,211 sworn officers when the coalition agreement was signed, which meant honouring the policy would mean increasing that to 10,711.

Police attrition, officers who left the workforce, was about 4.5 per cent annually - 460 officers based on the figure from last year.

Costello confirmed the policy was over and above attrition, so any officer trained to replace one who’d left would not count towards the 500 target.

However, she was confident police had the capacity to train the roughly 700 officers each year, given Wellington’s police college could train between 800 and 880 a year. She said it wouldn’t be necessary to have training centres in Auckland, as had been done in the past to achieve similar workforce targets.

Costello also referenced heightened interest in joining police, but couldn’t provide official advice or data at the time of the interview.

“They’ve had a significant uplift in inquiries.

“I think there’s a number of things that caused that, which is we have a tight labour market [and] there is a lot more investment in policing in regard to getting back to frontline policing.”

Associate Police Minister Casey Costello is responsible for delivering the policy. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The coalition Government had committed to police officers becoming more visible in communities in light of increasing violent and youth crime. The Government had set targets to reduce both by 2029. Earlier this year, Police Commissioner Andrew Coster indicated police would be focusing more on visible crime.

“People join the police because they want to serve the community and fundamentally to catch bad guys, that’s what I think the shift has been,” Costello said.

Earlier this year, Mitchell cited significant recruitment challenges facing police, including recruitment drives run by Australian police.

Costello doubted whether many would look across the ditch, given the current economic conditions.

“It’s a big call to go to Australia, it’s a big call to leave a pretty secure job in a tight economic environment.”

One factor that could influence workforce numbers was the resolution of police pay negotiations, which had gone to final arbitration, where the Government and the Police Association both proposed an offer and one would be picked by the arbitrator.

The Police Association had warned if the Government’s offer was selected - worth almost $800m but about $300m less than the association’s - officers might leave the profession or go to work in Australia.

Costello accepted some officers might be waiting for the outcome of final arbitration but said people would stay if working conditions were improved, something she was committed to achieving.

She cited analysis that found the police recruitment process had been suffering from being less of an in-person process and said improvements could be made.

NZ First leader Winston Peters is very confident the policy can be achieved. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Asked whether the 500 target was achievable, Costello said: “We’re going to go for it.”

She acknowledged she wouldn’t “drag people” into policing and would not lower training standards, so when asked if it was possible the target might not be reached, Costello said: “Well, we might not ... but we’re doing everything we can.”

Mitchell told the Herald police advice said the 500-target was “ambitious”, but believed it could be done “if everything lines up”.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was very confident the target would be reached on time, even suggesting it might be exceeded.

“We wouldn’t have set it if we didn’t think we would get there.

“Our record, I might tell you, is [we have] delivered twice the police numbers, we over-produced last time, we promised 1800 frontline and we trained 2338, that’s our record. So if you’re talking about 500 this time, we’ll probably do better than that.”

Labour police spokeswoman and former Police Minister Ginny Andersen said the target was not possible and suspected some creative counting would be required to achieve it.

“I think they will try and fudge whatever way they can ... it’s going to be virtually impossible for them to make that in two years.”

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.