Poland’s optimism in the face of Russia’s threat is a lesson for NZ – Shane Te Pou

Poland’s strength amid Russia’s threat offers lessons in resilience for NZ. Photo / Getty Images

THE FACTS

• In 2005, New Zealand established an embassy in Poland, anticipating its growing importance in Europe.
• Poland’s GDP has tripled since 2005, driven by EU access, manufacturing, and a tech sector.
• Poland aids Ukraine against Russia, sending military support and reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

In 2005, New Zealand made the remarkably astute decision to set up an embassy in Poland. Fast-forward 20 years and it’s clear this choice was not merely strategic, but prophetic.

Poland has emerged as a major player in the future of Europe – now boasting the largest economy in Eastern Europe (excluding transcontinental Russia), asserting itself as a powerful voice within the European Union (EU), and setting a goal of having the most powerful army in Europe.

Poland’s economic growth over the past two decades has been remarkable. According to the World Bank, Poland’s GDP tripled – from $300 billion in 2005 to over $900b today.

Access to the EU’s common market and investment has been a huge driver of this, but so has a long history in heavy manufacturing, now coupled with a burgeoning technology sector. With a GDP growth rate averaging around 4% annually since its EU accession, Poland is not just surviving, it is thriving.

The Poles have achieved this in a context that makes New Zealand’s neighbourhood look truly benign in comparison. Poland and its capital Warsaw have been left with deep scars from being the site of major battles in two world wars and bitter fighting in the aftermath of World War I, as well as 44 years of communism imposed by Soviet Russia.

In 1989, it was the first country to throw off Russian dominance – but was left with an economy that was shaped for supplying Soviet needs and far behind Western technology.

After being fought over by empires and reduced to rubble, Poland has risen from its ashes. Today, Warsaw is a vibrant city of nearly two million. The spirit of resilience is palpable in its streets. The history of oppression and hard-won independence has forged a national identity that is proud and forward-looking.

Poland’s greatest asset lies in its 40 million hard-working and resilient citizens. I found the people warm and curious – a far cry from the image of dour Eastern Europe that we used to see on the TV in past decades.

Warsaw pulsates with a positive vibe – bustling cafes, lively markets and an ever-growing middle class that embraces modernity while cherishing its rich heritage – Warsaw’s blend of historical architecture and contemporary design.

But, if Poland has learned anything from its history, it’s that its freedom and prosperity are fragile, and it must not leave itself vulnerable to powerful neighbours. That’s why it has been one of the most committed new members to the EU and Nato, and built a deep relationship and economic interdependence with Germany.

As Poland continues to strengthen its position within Europe, it has its focus clearly on the threat of a resurgent Russia.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, first in annexing Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, and then full-scale invasion from 2022, has confirmed Poland’s worst fears that Putin wants to restore the old empire at the point of a gun.

No wonder Poland was one of the first to call for and supply aid to Ukraine. They know that if they don’t stand by their neighbours in their time of need, they won’t be able to depend on others if Putin sets his sights on Warsaw.

And they know that if Ukraine were to collapse and become a Russian puppet state, that would bring the Russian army to the Polish border. Poles think Ukrainian freedom now means Polish freedom for the future.

Poland has sent hundreds of tanks and other military vehicles to aid Ukraine in its fight for its freedom, while also increasing its own military spending, with the aim of being able to deter any Russian aggression.

And it’s making Russia pay economically, too. A huge renewable energy push has allowed Poland to get off Russian fossil fuels. In 2021, three-quarters of Polish coal imports, two-thirds of Polish oil imports and nearly half of Polish natural gas imports came from Russia. Today, those imports have dropped to zero.

Poland will undoubtedly be a key player in maintaining European support for Ukraine and, eventually, forcing Russia to an acceptable peace deal. That deal might look something like this: Ukraine giving up some of its territory, not joining Nato but having its protection and a demilitarised zone.

And, yet, despite this looming threat, Warsaw feels optimistic and positive.

They say we don’t know how lucky we are in New Zealand. A few days in a country that has to face the real threat of invasion from an aggressive neighbour reminds me how true that is.

But it also proves that people can come through adversity stronger than before, and that the freedom to choose your own future as a nation is a taonga that should not be taken for granted.

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