PM Jacinda Ardern says IMF recession warning to Apec leaders a ‘cause for concern’; leaders condemn Ukraine war

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said a grim warning from the International Monetary Fund to Apec leaders that most countries would either be in recession or feel as if they were was “a cause for concern, but not a surprise”.

Ardern left Bangkok on Saturday night to return to New Zealand, saying it had been an instructive Apec summit, including a briefing from Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

Ardern said some of the projections Georgieva set out were “a cause for concern.

“There is a reasonable chance we could see growth that is as low as 2 per cent and for those countries that don’t experience recession technically, it will feel like recession.”

Georgieva told leaders they should be alert, but not alarmed, saying the world had changed in ways nobody had foreseen as a result of the pandemic and Ukraine war.

“She was very clear on the contributing factors to the economic environment in our region: supply chain issues off the back of Covid, and the war in Ukraine. She was very definitive,” Ardern said.

She said New Zealand was among those feeling the pinch, but would not be drawn on whether that would become or feel like a recession. “It feels like a cost of living crisis, and that’s because it has been. But we are not alone in that.”

Ardern said from the IMF’s perception, open borders, trade and the free flow of goods and services were crucial to get through it.

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The leaders’ statement at the summit’s conclusion had included a condemnation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine by “most leaders”, which Ardern said showed Russia was now “very isolated.”

The statement issued by leaders at the end of the summit on Saturday included a paragraph about the war in Ukraine, noting flow-on impacts to the global economy and saying it was causing “immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”

There had been uncertainty about whether leaders with closer ties to Russia would baulk at including condemnation in the statement, the wording of which requires consensus.

Ardern said she had been uncertain whether it would be achieved but its eventual inclusion high up in the statement was important. “To come through Apec and see that consensus form is really significant. And it does demonstrate that we have a very isolated Russia at this point in time.”

As with an earlier statement at the G20 Summit two days earlier, the Apec statement noted it was the position of “most” leaders, acknowledging there were differing opinions. That rider was needed to ensure leaders would agree with including the issue in the statement at all.

It also noted that Apec was primarily an economic forum and not the right forum to deal with a security issue, but that the economic impacts of the war were significant.

Russia was represented at Apec by a minister - and faced the cold shoulder from most of the other leaders at the social events and in talks.

Ardern said it had been valuable for leaders to be able to meet in person again after the Covid-19 border closures.

“This has been at a critical time, an absolutely critical time to be here when we are seeing the escalation of tension with the DPRK, when you see potential de-escalation in Ukraine. To be able to be here and talk face to face, this has been an incredibly important series of meetings.”

PM Jacinda Ardern meets China's President Xi Jinping while in Bangkok for Apec 2022. Photo / Thomas Manch, pool

Of her one-on-one meetings, Ardern said her meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping was the most crucial for New Zealand’s interests, and had stretched beyond the 20 minutes allocated to 50 minutes.

“The face to face meeting with President Xi, the longest I’ve had, was incredibly valuable for New Zealand and New Zealand’s interests.”

Otherwise, she prioritised leaders she had not yet met - including Philippines new President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr and South Korea’s Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

Ardern said there was “strong positioning” from many leaders on North Korea’s increase in ballistic missile testing and concern about nuclear testing.

Ardern said for those countries neighbouring North Korea it presented “very real risk” and had a significant economic impact.

Ardern said there was clear consensus that peace and stability was essential for the region.

Ardern returns to New Zealand on Sunday morning after eight days way to Cambodia for the East Asia Summit, a trade delegation in Vietnam and the Apec summit in Bangkok.