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Home / New Zealand

Opinion: Parmjeet Parmar: Why National thought it could win the 2020 election

By Parmjeet Parmar
NZ Herald·
4 Nov, 2020 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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A look back at the National Party campaign.
Opinion

OPINION

Quite early on as a student of science, I learned the importance of various brain chemicals in the context of feelings and emotions. As I gained some life experience, I learned the importance of control on emotions.

But it was not until I got into politics, that I learned about the extent we as humans are capable of manipulating emotions.

Being a part of the National Party, I have experienced both the party at the top and then at the bottom - and all this in just two terms.

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As a candidate campaigning in 2014 and then becoming a Member of Parliament straight after the 2014 general election during the "John Key era", I got to see the National Party at the top.

Now, during the last term and the recent general election, I've experienced the National Party at the other extreme. Yes, 2002 is often remembered as the worst election for the party but, from now on, it will be the 2020 general election as well.

The problem was not the popularity of the Labour Party, but rather National not being able to reconnect voters to what we were about and present ourselves as a real alternative.

No political party likes to be at the bottom of the race. National definitely wanted to see the Labour Government as a one-term government. The National Party caucus aspired to bring in those 3 to 4 per cent of additional votes we missed in 2017, forcing us into Opposition despite being the party with the most votes.

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As a brand new Member of Parliament in 2014 under the strong leadership of John Key, I remember feeling like we would remain in government forever. There was no way Labour could ever form the next government.

I remember the emotions of campaigning in 2014. There was no need to hide those emotions and it is those emotions that I looked forward to feeling in 2017 and Ihoped for in 2020.

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That feeling of trust and confidence from voters I remember from 2014 was still there in 2020, but there was a notable difference in the mixed reaction from members of the public, mainly towards the state of the party.

There was no urgency among voters to vote for National. Many were prepared to give Labour another chance as they were perceived to have handled Covid-19 well.

Several times while campaigning I was reminded of how I felt in 2014 and then in 2017, and was often struck by emotions of compassion for Labour, thinking how they would have felt in 2014 and 2017.

It might sound like sour grapes, but I can definitely say National did not get enough time out there to campaign due to the lockdowns. The lockdowns were – whether intended or not – perfect for the Labour Party as the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her team were front and centre every day for the Covid-19 updates.

Parmjeet Parmar. Photo / Supplied
Parmjeet Parmar. Photo / Supplied

National did, in a very logical manner, refute many claims from the Government regarding the handling of the situation, but this does not take away the fact that the National Party was busy working its own way down to the bottom with things that were already in the public domain.

One after the other, opinion polls predicted the dire election result that was upon us but for some reason, we manipulated our emotions to expect the polls to be wrong.

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We expected an unrealistic silent vote for National that the result did not reflect. We relied on that huge group of undecided voters and undisclosed voters, pretending they were National voters. We expected the gap to be closing each day as we got closer to Election Day.

Most people think elections are about manipulating voter emotions. However, in this recent election I think we fell into the trap of manipulating our own.

• Dr Parmjeet Parmar has PhD in Biological Sciences from the University of Auckland, is a former Families Commissioner and was a National MP from 2014 to 2020.

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