"Queensland's outbreak reached a peak around mid-January before dropping down to a plateau of around 5000 cases a day - or 1000 per million, approximately," Harvey said.
"And it stayed near there until probably early March, when they loosened restrictions, and cases began increasing again."
Queensland's initial surge compared well with our own, with Brisbane and Auckland's well-connected populations helping accelerate the rate of early spread.
But the wave's tail in Aotearoa was proving longer, as the virus gradually rolled through other provinces and population centres – something Harvey said had helped ease strain on the health system.
"If we'd had one peak like Auckland, but across the whole country, that would have led to much more pressure on hospitals nationwide all at once."
It took around a month for Queensland's peak to fall to a plateau – and it was possible Auckland, and then the rest of New Zealand, would follow similar timelines.
"Auckland is now getting close to a month after its peak, so we might expect cases there to flatten out and continue trickling along," she said.
"As other parts of the country are only just reaching their peaks now – or have in the last week or so – they still might have a month to go before their own case numbers begin stabilising."
Another comparative advantage New Zealand had was boosting.
Because of Queensland's earlier outbreak start, the state had only managed to boost about a third of its over-18 population by the time its first wave peaked.
"A hopeful thing will be that we had much higher booster uptake when the Omicron wave took off here - especially in the areas outside Auckland, which were delayed even further," Harvey said.
While boosting dampened down transmission, it also greatly reduced the risk of hospitalisation and death.
Since late last year, Queensland has recorded more than 700 Covid-19-linked deaths.
"Our higher booster uptake - enabled by the time we bought ourselves by having MIQ for another two months - means that we would expect to see a lower total number of deaths here in the months from January through to the end of May, if we see a similar number of cases," Harvey said.
By the time Queensland reached its peak of mortalities, around mid-February, the state had recorded 400 deaths.
"And New Zealand is up to just over 300 deaths - hopefully near the 'peak' in deaths - from the Omicron wave so far, so we're not as far behind them as we would like to be."
Last week, modellers told the Herald they expected to see New Zealand's high daily death figures to continue for another couple of weeks, even as case numbers fell away.
That was because the virus was working its way into more vulnerable communities, with deaths concentrated in older age groups.
Still, Harvey said the toll will be less than what it might have been, had New Zealand not had time to get the booster to rest home residents.
"Over half of Queensland's deaths came from people in aged care facilities," she said.
"I am not aware of any such data for New Zealand, so it's very hard to tell whether we are doing better or worse in this regard."
Harvey also stressed the importance of public health measures, which Queensland substantially weakened last month when it scrapped mask mandates and gathering limits in many settings.
"It's not just BA.2 causing the rise in cases over there – it's also people's behaviour," she said.
"We'd expect the same thing here, if we stepped down our own restrictions too quickly."
