KEY POINTS:
The Government is running risks with New Zealand's international reputation by talking about carbon neutrality when on our present course and speed we will be lucky to reach our Kyoto target by 2050 - 38 years late, the New Zealand Institute says.
The think tank's chief executive, David
Skilling, in a report entitled "Actions speak louder than words", says the measures the Government has announced over the past few months, including an emissions trading scheme, a 90 per cent renewable electricity generation target and tighter fuel efficiency standards, are steps in the right direction and will reduce emissions.
"Overall, however, we estimate that the various policies will only serve to reduce domestic emissions in 2050 to about their 1990 level."
New Zealand's Kyoto target is to reduce emissions to that level by 2012, but they are now about 25 per cent above it, or 13 per cent if allowance is made for the offsetting effects of new forests.
Dr Skilling said the evidence was that higher prices for electricity and transport fuels did not reduce consumption of them by much.
Half of New Zealand's emissions come from agriculture but it is harder to redesign a cow than a car.
"Having an efficient and large dairy industry makes deep emissions reductions much more difficult to achieve," he said.
Part of the response to climate change, therefore, had to be about changing the structure of the economy by expanding "weightless" exports like movies, computer software or other forms of intellectual capital. "Policies to achieve this, such as investing in research, education and a world class communications infrastructure, are as important to climate change policy as emissions trading."
At the Bali climate change conference in December New Zealand supported European calls for developed countries to aim to reduce their combined emissions to 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
The National Party has set a target of 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050.
The Government has not put a date on its "aspiration of carbon neutrality", a term which implies reducing emissions to the level at which they can be entirely offset by establishing carbon sinks such as new forests.
By such talk, Dr Skilling said, "New Zealand is creating a non-trivial reputational risk."
The institute suggests a target of 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 would be challenging enough, given where we are starting from.