COMMENT

There are some scenarios to think about ahead of this afternoon's big reveal.

Firstly, Grant Robertson on Friday at the update bent over backwards to walk back the mistake the Prime Minister had made on Thursday in outlining level three.

She explained it in a way that clearly large swathes of New Zealanders thought we were automatically heading for it, as if it actually started the moment she outlined it.

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So on Friday Robertson read out a list of countries that not only hadn't unlocked their people, they had in fact locked them down longer.

Trouble with that, was those counties aren't us. Britain was one of his examples. If you compare Britain with us and even begin to think they're remotely similar, there is no hope for you. Once again the messaging has been messy.

We should, of course, be going to level three this week. To my mind it's a foregone conclusion. Every day fewer and fewer people have the virus. More get over it than get it - we are going backwards in a good way.

But never underestimate those who are besotted with this as a medical experiment. And never under estimate the politicians that see the mirage of elimination as a career-defining moment.

Both groups have a large say in today's announcement. If anything health wise trips us up it will be contact tracing. We have not been good at it. We haven't got to people fast enough - the same way the police never quite knocked on the doors of the self isolators they way they said they would. The same as the border was closed but no one quite got quarantined until really it was too late.

Also medicos will argue having a bunch of people in supermarket car parks swabbing shoppers randomly isn't all that comprehensive either. So their argument will be, if you're looking for a picture perfect landscape on which to make a level four/level three call, we won't have it.

Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website

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Which is not, of course, a reason not to do the sensible thing. But don't forget, this is less about sense than it is ideology, obsession and politics.

Also don't forget this is a government that is hopelessly indecisive. The fact we got locked down in the first place was really the work of some behind-the-scenes heavyweights who have never got the credit they deserve. This government's weak point is pressure. They don't lead, they react, and they react most to pressure.

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So don't be surprised if we get another week at four with a promise of two weeks at three. Like supermarkets got to open Sunday, but not Friday. Why be decisive if you don't have to? Or you don't now how?

Today though, in theory, is the day to do the right thing by us all.

We have paid a spectacular price economically. We achieved many days ago what we set out to do: flatten the curve.

We have been successful, so let's get on with it.