Listening to the Prime Minister yesterday and her logic and reason, the most obvious question for those who spent most of last week saying the same thing, is why didn't she get it then? Why was she dragged kicking and screamingto the most obvious of points?
The modelling she referred to as far as cases are concerned has been around since the numbers offshore exploded. The lessons learned, and not learned, have all been there for us to see, read, take in and absorb. The modelling has us at over 600 cases by Sunday, about 1200 by this time next week, over 2300 by Thursday week.
Short of a vaccine, a lockdown was all we could do, so thank God we got there.
Much more reassuring has been the Government's economic response. They have performed poorly health-wise, but not so economically. With the odd exception like the Pike River call, Māori call and benefit call. The obvious extensions were made yesterday. All businesses big and small now have some sort of cover, or help.
The banks are playing their role, helped by the Government and their balance sheet, and the Reserve Bank.
If there is a light at the end of the tunnel economically, given all of this is global and we are all in trouble, it's that money won't be an issue. They can print the stuff as long as there is ink. Money can flood the place, which makes it a stark contrast to the GFC. It is why the GFC and this should never really have been compared. Banks can protect mortgages and houses, rents are being protected. This is a limited crisis, where an end will unfold.
China is living proof of it.
My only real fear at this point is us. To put it bluntly, with the panic shopping, beachgoers, socialising and general stupidity we have hopelessly let ourselves down.
For the past week, rightly or wrongly, the world has changed dramatically. The day Trump closed those borders to Europe, the world changed dramatically. That was the cue and the clue, and too many didn't get it, or want to get it.
My great hope apart from us getting it now and not behaving like idiots, is we learn like Asia. We should never forget this, we learn from this, and we are better prepared next time.
I hope logic prevails, that this is a health crisis and nothing more. This isn't a water crisis, or power, or petrol, or transport, or food.
Just health.
Being stuck will be fun for some for a while, then it'll be a pain. That's a very small price to pay for, at last, the urgency of this starting to drive decision making. And hopefully for us to really get ahead of this instead of just saying we are.
