Czech drug-smuggler Karel Sroubek will stay behind bars after being denied parole.
The Parole Board, in a just-released decision, said Serco's assessment that Sroubek possessed a "low risk of reoffending" had underestimated the risk.
Factors the board deemed highly relevant to the risk he posed include: that he attempted to import drugs into New Zealand from the Czech Republic, his association with criminals in the Czech Republic and his association with the Hells Angels in New Zealand.
Sroubek came to New Zealand in 2003 on a false passport in the name of Jan Antolik.
He was found guilty in a 2011 jury trial of using a false passport and lying to immigration officials, but was discharged without conviction by the trial judge, who believed his evidence.
The representative kickboxer claimed he had to flee his home in the Czech Republic in fear of corrupt police officers and a criminal after witnessing a murder.
Four years later, he was jailed for five years and nine months for bringing a drug used to make Ecstasy into the country hidden among legitimate goods. He is due to finish his sentence in early 2022.
Sroubek has been battling to remain in New Zealand at the end of his sentence, arguing his life remains in danger if he returns to his homeland.
His case sparked a political firestorm that burned Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway because of his initial decision to grant Sroubek residency.
The Immigration NZ review of the case found that Sroubek was liable for deportation.
"We acknowledge, as far as Mr Antolik is concerned, that overall he has behaved well within prison," Parole Board chairman Sir Ron Young said in the decision.
"We also acknowledge that it is hardly his fault or responsibility that he has not had any rehabilitation programmes because Serco have assessed him at low risk of reoffending."
But it was not a view shared by the Parole Board.
"We do not think it is low at all. Given the matters we have identified above, we think it is significantly higher than low.
"We think there is evidence to support the fact that Mr Antolik [Sroubek] has a significant history of illegal activity in both the Czech Republic and New Zealand and spread over many years."
The Parole Board also considered that the Crown had sought confiscation from Sroubek of somewhere over $200,000, which they identified as cash used to pay his mortgage and cash apparently gifted to his in-laws, as the proceeds of crime.
A settlement was reached involving confiscation of $160,000.
"That settlement involved an acceptance by Mr Antolik [Sroubek] of criminal offending on a significant scale, the result of which were use of illegal funds to benefit him and his wife," Young said.
Furthermore, information from the Czech Republic showed a series of convictions in the early 2000s which resulted in a prison sentence.
Sroubek challenged the accuracy of the information about the convictions but the Parole Board believed it had "no reason to doubt" it.
"Given that intensive past history, we think he remains an undue risk," Young said.
"We do not consider any of the proposed special conditions significantly affect that risk.
"Parole is therefore declined."
The Parole Board has invited Serco to re-assess Sroubek's risk before his next appearance in January.