Last week, politics nerds in New Zealand erupted in psephological conniptions. On the same day, two major opinion polls appeared with headlines that were polls apart.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll had Labour with a crushing 50 per cent share of the vote, National collapsing into the high 30s and New Zealand First just over the MMP five per cent threshold. By stark contrast, the 1 NewsColmar Brunton survey had National surging to lead Labour 46-42, with Winston Peters set to be out of a job with New Zealand First on just 2.8 per cent. The Greens sat in both