Two new political polls released tonight show different trends for National Party support, but the same trend for Simon Bridges falling behind Judith Collins in terms of preferred Prime Minister popularity.
National rose in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll to 44 per cent, up 4 points from its last poll in April and ahead of Labour, which dropped 6 per cent to 42 per cent.
Labour would need the support of the Greens on 6 per cent and New Zealand First on 5 per cent to form a government.
But the Newshub-Reid Research poll had National diving 4.2 points to 37.4 per cent, while Labour skyrocketed to 50.8 per cent, up 3.3 points and enough to govern alone. The Greens were on 6 per cent and New Zealand First on 2.8 per cent.
The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll had Collins on 6 per cent in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, ahead of Bridges on 5 per cent, but well below Jacinda Ardern on 45 per cent.
Similarly, the Newshub Reid Research poll had Bridges on 4.2 per cent, below Collins on 7.1 per cent, while Ardern was on 49 per cent support.
Both polls followed last week's Wellbeing Budget and the controversy around National accessing confidential information and releasing some of it two days before Budget day.
According to the Newshub Reid Research poll, 55 per cent of voters thought it was wrong for National to seek out and release Budget information before Budget day, while 32.6 per cent thought it was right.
The last Newshub Reid Research poll was in February and showed that National had nosedived to 41.6 per cent.
Labour was on 47.5 per cent in that poll, and could govern with support from the Greens on 5.1 per cent; New Zealand First was on 2.9 per cent.
That poll had Jacinda Ardern at 41.8 per cent in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, well ahead of Simon Bridges on 5 per cent, who was below National MP Judith Collins on 6.2 per cent.
Bridges had a similar rating in the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll in April, where he had 5 per cent support in the votes for preferred Prime Minister, the same as Collins and well below Ardern's 51 per cent.
That poll, which followed the Christchurch terror attack, had Labour on 48 per cent, National on 40 per cent, the Greens on 6 per cent, and New Zealand First on 4.3 per cent, below the 5 per cent threshold required to win any seats in Parliament without an electorate seat.
Ardern has dominated headlines in the past months, implementing gun law reform and starting a Royal Commission of Inquiry into how the terror attack happened, and whether it could have been prevented.
She also scrapped any plans for a capital gains tax while she remained leader, announced the Zero Carbon Bill, and headed to Paris to co-chair a meeting of heads of state and tech companies to curb violent extremism content from online platforms.
Last week the Government released its Wellbeing Budget, but it shared headlines with the controversy that National staffers had been able to access confidential Budget information ahead of Budget day by using the Treasury website's search bar.
The centrepiece of the Budget was $1.9 billion into the mental health and addiction treatment sector, but there was also $1 billion for KiwiRail, $320 million to index benefit levels to the average wage, and $266 million for decile 1 to 7 schools that scrap parent donations.
The education boosts in the Budget were not enough to stop a nationwide teacher strike last week, but discussions this week between the education unions and Education Minister Chris Hipkins have seen strikes for next week called off.
The National Party released a discussion document on international affairs, the recommendations of its party culture - which followed Parliament's review into bullying an harassment - and has kept the heat on the Government's KiwiBuild programme and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones.