It appears that an increasingly confident Jacinda Ardern can surf a tidal wave to victory.

But no election is over until the ballots are cast. It is hard to stop a tidal wave, let alone turn it back, but it can be done.

Taxes: Jacinda thinks the answer to every problem is a new tax. Asking for a mandate for capital gains taxes without giving any details is outrageous. All new taxes start small and then grow. GST was never going to be more than 10 per cent.

Who believes it is fair that the Dotcom mansion will be an exempt "family home" but a family's holiday caravan plot will be taxed? The details are important. What if you work from home? What if a trust owns the family home?


While there may be a tax-free threshold it is just a matter of time before the family home will be subject to Labour's capital gains tax. Capital gains taxes will beggar small business owners who are our job creators.

Jacinda's belief that somehow the absence of capital gains taxes has caused the housing crisis is just silly. Sydney and San Francisco have very expensive housing and capital gains taxes. Auckland pre the Resource Management Act had no capital gains tax and affordable homes. Capital gains tax is the politics of envy.

Personalities: Of course Jacinda Ardern does not want any personal politics but fitness for office is an issue. A 37-year-old who has never had a real job, any real-life experience and has had an undistinguished parliamentary career is not ready to be Prime Minister.

As President Trump daily proves, ability to do TV sound bites is not proof you can govern.

Race Relations: National's recent record is better than Labour's. Using an election to nationalise Maori water rights is an abuse of democracy. Jacinda and what army is going to collect water royalties from Maori farmers? Making ownership of water a campaign issue is going to end badly. No one with experience in government would have done it.

The Greens: The scariest statement of the campaign was James Shaw pointing out that Labour, the Greens and Maori Party could be government. Mr Shaw described the prospect as the "most progressive government" ever. Helen Clark believed just the prospect of the Green Party holding the balance of power would scare Labour voters into voting National.

The Economy: National's biggest mistake is not pointing out Treasury's rosy growth projections are always wrong. If the only issue is how to spend surpluses then why not vote Labour?

National should say New Zealand has a small economy open to overseas economic shocks. If Trump gets his trade war we will be in recession. The next government's priority should be preparing for the next recession. Labour's tax-and-spend is based on the good times never ending. Only a fool believes that.


MMP: In the last three weeks of every MMP election one third party has surged. Who wins this Friday's minor leaders debate could be important.

It is not Winston. We pensioners who have to fill out the same forms are incredulous that Peters could make eight false declarations. The penalty for a false Super declaration is three times any extra payment. The fine is waived when the department concludes you are gaga. The department has waived the penalty. New Zealand First is in freefall.

The Greens have dropped talk of fighting poverty and are campaigning on their core issue of whales and plastic bags but Metiria Turei is still a Green candidate. James Shaw still refuses to say that benefit fraud is wrong. Ms Turei who has been earning $200,000 a year has yet to repay the taxpayer. In a recent Colmar Brunton poll the Greens were out.

The Maori Party is being swept away by the Jacinda effect.

Top was never going to make it to Parliament.

David Seymour has impressed in the debates. He has been a good MP for Epsom, which he is winning so all Act list votes will count. Act is the only party promising to reform the RMA and putting forward fresh ideas. In just three weeks of one election Act went from 1 per cent to electing seven MPs. Act could be National's lifeline.

Will the Jacinda tidal wave be turned back? I doubt it. Voting starts in just a week. Bill English is a nice guy and we all know where they finish.

• Richard Prebble is a former leader of Act.