Mike Hosking: National appear to be in some level of trouble

There's been a gap between polls, so the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll heading into this weekend gives us a good steer as to how we stand with five weeks to go until voting day.

The Nats, for the first time, appear in some level of trouble. At 44 per cent they need to do better. Other polls have them at 44 per cent already, but Colmar had them at 47 per cent, and Colmar is a robust set of numbers I tend to trust.

The sense in National is they need at least 45 per cent or they have real issues, so they are dancing with political death at the moment. This without question has gone from a race where the Nats had a better-than-even chance of getting a fourth term, to it being a real lottery.

The real story of course is the Greens at 4 per cent: not only have they crashed, they're not even in Parliament, and here's the real worry, are they terminal? Has the move back to Labour sealed their fate?

Why would you bother with them, given the way they behaved, and given Labour now seems a viable option? What a catastrophic mistake it will be if the Turei debacle sank the party. It is widely accepted now that James Shaw failed the leadership test. He should have cut her loose; by standing by her he looked weak and he and the rest of them are now paying the price.

Here's another scenario. If the Greens stay at 4 per cent, and Top get to 3 per cent, that's 7 per cent of the vote burned off - in other words you are splitting 93 per cent, not 100 per cent. That helps National.

And what about NZ First? It's possible on these numbers that Labour and Winston do a deal - a two party deal - a clean simple deal that looks a lot more workable than a three-way deal involving the Greens.

Peter Dunne is critical this poll doesn't cover him, but the Q&A poll in Ohariu this week has him sunk. That's another issue for National.

Here's a question that needs an answer, given National will almost certainly end up on the night with the biggest vote: do they get first crack with Winston, if Winston holds the balance? Or is Winston so in bed with Labour now they may as well give up before they start?

What I think we can say now with some confidence is the Labour spill has worked. Little really was a fantastic drag on their success and lancing the boil has been the right thing to do. The risk has paid off.

So, it's tight, tighter than most thought, which makes every day, every policy, every announcement critical. As the poll also shows, 13 per cent still don't know which way they swing, and that makes all the difference.