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Home / New Zealand

MetService forecast: Wet Saturday with thunderstorms risk in North Island

Samuel Sherry
Journalist·NZ Herald·
19 Dec, 2025 04:00 PM2 mins to read

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MetService's Heather Keats gives her forecast over the Christmas period.

A wet Saturday is in store for much of the country, with a risk of thunderstorms across the top of the North Island.

MetService has predicted a low risk of thunderstorms stretching across the middle of the North Island, but slightly further north, toward the Bay of Plenty and Auckland, this risk increases to moderate.

Thunderstorms in this area, and heavy rain of up to 20mm/h, would likely happen before dawn.

Heading further northwest into Northland, the moderate risk of thunder remains, but this could continue further into the morning and be downgraded to a low risk in the afternoon.

The band of rain hitting parts of Auckland and Northland in the early hours, and possibly bringing this turbulent weather, should stick around until the early afternoon before eventually pulling away as evening approaches.

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The weather should stay fairly warm in these areas, with highs of 22C in Auckland and 24C in Whangārei.

Auckland could be in for some wet weather on Saturday. Photo / Dean Purcell
Auckland could be in for some wet weather on Saturday. Photo / Dean Purcell

Plenty of rain is expected in the South Island too, becoming more prevalent as the day progresses.

Southerly winds should help to feed showers in parts of Southland, Otago and Canterbury in the afternoon, while the West Coast will stay much drier.

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Although there is a low risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening for the South Island, there is still a risk of small hail on its eastern side, which could stretch across the Cook Strait and into the Wellington region.

Sunday should be a much drier day for most of the country, with some isolated showers in the North Island, clearing mostly south of Auckland later in the day.

Some early showers are likely around Christchurch, but much of the rain in the South Island will be centred north of Dunedin.

Looking ahead to Christmas Day, MetService has suggested the South Island’s western coast looks likely to be drenched, but the North Island should be much drier with some showers around in more western areas.

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