Matthew Hooton: Christopher Luxon has chance to lead New Zealand’s first genuine change government in a generation

Never before have New Zealanders so decisively thrown out a Government and demanded a radical new direction, Matthew Hooton says. Photo / Hayden Woodward

OPINION

We won’t know until November 3 whether incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be able to lead New Zealand’s first genuine change government in a generation – or be forced by Winston Peters to mostly preside over the status quo.

If he is unable to deliver change, he will be the latest Prime Minister to let down his supporters.

Three years ago, voters gave Labour its first majority mandate since 1946 to advance the welfare state built by Michael Joseph Savage and Peter Fraser.

The Ardern-Hipkins Government was too cynical, too lazy, too incompetent or all three to deliver.

Last night, New Zealanders made clear that if Labour couldn’t or wouldn’t deliver them Sweden of the South Pacific then let’s ask National and Act to try Switzerland or Singapore of the South Pacific.

Labour’s rejection is unprecedented. Its vote has halved since 2020, and no outgoing Government has ever fallen below 30 per cent.

Never before have New Zealanders so decisively thrown out a Government and demanded a radical new direction.

In Auckland, Labour was completely smashed – almost certainly because Chris Hipkins’ failure to get the vaccination programme underway early enough caused Jacinda Ardern’s unnecessary and disgracefully prolonged lockdown of 2021.

Likewise, Labour took a beating in the Māori seats.

The strength of the demand for change was underlined by Act deputy leader Brooke van Velden so decisively winning Tamaki, despite National investing so much in trying to prevent it.

In Epsom, which National campaigned to win for the first time since 2002, Act leader David Seymour romped home, with double the National candidate’s vote.

Under Seymour’s leadership, Act now controls what was once National’s Auckland heartland.

At the time of writing, National and Act still had a slim majority of 62 seats, which will increase to 63 after the Port Waikato byelection. That’s far more than suggested by any pollster, including its own.

But National usually loses two seats to the left when special votes are counted.

That would make it necessary to deal with Winston Peters. He would have a veto over everything National-Act planned to do.

After a quarter century of drift, New Zealand needs - and voters are demanding - a clear sense of direction, including to address the fiscal crisis, beat inflation quickly, drive down interest rates, begin to pay off Labour’s debt and deliver tax cuts as conditions allow.

Some in National will be happy to bring in NZ First as a handbrake, to provide an excuse for not decisively breaking with the past quarter century of failed incrementalism under both Labour and National regimes.

That would be a betrayal of the near-majority of voters who last night placed their faith in Luxon and Seymour to do more than preside over the status quo.

They should negotiate their coalition agreement immediately, and get to work to have a bold mini-Budget ready for before Christmas.

There is no time to play Peters’ games, and no money to pay for the baubles he’ll demand.

For New Zealanders who believe we can do better than bumble along, it will be a long two weeks.