Life stabilising for Cantabrians but big shake 'still likely'

File photo / Brett Phibbs

More than three months on from the last big shakes, Cantabrians have hope that the horror run of damaging earthquakes might finally be over.

But experts warn an unsettling quake of more than magnitude 5 is still likely in the months ahead.

The last quakes considered damaging enough to be rated "events" for insurance purposes were on December 23, when the region was hit by magnitude 5.8 and 6 quakes.

Since then the quakes have continued - but on a smaller scale - giving residents some sense of normality.

Christchurch mayor Bob Parker said people he spoke to had a growing sense of optimism and a feeling "that we have got over the hump now".

"And that we are on the track for, seismically, a much quieter life," Mr Parker told the Herald.

Latest calculations from GNS Science - for the year to March 14, 2013 - put the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 quake at 77 per cent, down from 79 per cent a month ago.

However, a quake of magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 - the range the deadly February 2011 quake fell into - has just an 11 per cent probability, and a magnitude 7.0 or larger quake - like the September 2010 event - is put at just 1 per cent probability.

Mr Parker said Cantabrians knew there would probably be "another few little bumps".

"But that feeling that many people lived under for a long time - that there is still another huge earthquake just around the corner - I think that is dissipating, and that's very positive."

Cantabrians would likely always be wary, knowing that "Mother Nature can always hold another surprise".

RATTLE AND ROLL

Chance for year to March 2013:

* 77 per cent of magnitude 5.0 to 5.4
* 34 per cent of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9
* 11 per cent of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4
* 3 per cent of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9
* 1 per cent of magnitude 7.0 or higher
Source: GNS Science