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Home / New Zealand

Key's takeover puts brakes on Labour rise

By Paula Oliver
4 Dec, 2006 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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John Key

John Key

KEY POINTS:

John Key's election as National leader has stemmed a strong Labour comeback in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

National has a 1.1-point lead in the latest poll, well down on the 7.7-point lead it had in August's survey.

But in an early sign that National's leadership change is being welcomed, the party's fortunes have risen since Don Brash's resignation.

A third of the poll was conducted after Dr Brash said he would step down as National leader, and in that sample the party's lead widened to 3.4 points.

Mr Key's rating as preferred prime minister also rose after Dr Brash's resignation, to 28.5 per cent.

Helen Clark's rating was 52.9 per cent and Dr Brash's was 3.9 per cent.

The overall poll result is mixed for the two big parties.

Labour is likely to take heart from its recovery, and National will be buoyed by indications it changed leaders at the right time.

Labour's resurgence came after it regained the political high ground, using its annual conference in late October to set out its climate change policy goals and try to push the pledge card debacle and Taito Phillip Field saga off the front pages.

Helen Clark's extensive overseas travel, during which she met world leaders and attended the Apec summit in Hanoi, may also have played a role in her party's revival.

She will face Mr Key in Parliament today for the first - and possibly only - showdown the two will have there this year.

Mr Key is expected to take on Helen Clark during question time, and yesterday she was circumspect about the clash.

"It's the fourth time I've experienced this [a National Party leadership change] and no doubt, as with all other times, they'll come in with chests filled with pride and confidence. We'll see where it goes."

Helen Clark remained on top as preferred prime minister in the overall poll, rating 54.2 per cent.

Mr Key had 17.3 per cent support in the overall poll and Dr Brash 12.9.

The poll of 1003 people was conducted between November 14 and December 2. It has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

It spans the period during which Dr Brash gained a court injunction to prevent publication of his emails, which later emerged in Nicky Hager's book The Hollow Men.

The later stage of the polling period also covered the release of the book and its fallout for Dr Brash.

The Greens remain the only minor party to top the 5 per cent threshold, registering 6.1 per cent support - up from 5.8 per cent in August's poll.

The Maori Party has slipped to 2 per cent from 3.4 per cent, and New Zealand First has risen to 3.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent.

If National's slim lead over Labour were translated into election-day figures, it would probably need the support of at least two other parties to govern.

Mr Key appears to have recognised this during his first week as leader by indicating an intention to build relationships with other parties.

The poll shows National has a 4.1 point lead over Labour in Auckland, and the two main parties are nearly neck and neck throughout the rest of New Zealand.

The poll also underscores Labour's strong support among female voters, which has been a weakness for National in recent years.

Labour has 47 per cent support among women, compared with National's 36.6 per cent.

National dominates among male voters, registering 49.5 per cent against Labour's 36.1 per cent.

Poll results in brief

Between November 14 and December 2 1003 people were interviewed for the Herald-Digipoll. The margin of error was 3.1%. A third of the sample was collected after Don Brash's resignation.

* Party votes of over 1% (result after resignation in brackets)

National 42.8% (44.5%)
Labour 41.7% (41.1%)
Greens 6.1% (6.3%)
NZ First 3.4% (2.9%)
Maori Party 2.0% (2.6%)
United 1.6% (1.1%)
Act 1.0% ( - )

Preferred prime minister (result after resignation in brackets)

Helen Clark 54.2% (52.9%)
John Key 17.3% (28.5%)
Winston Peters 6.3% (6.2%)
Don Brash 12.9% (3.9%)
Jim Anderton 1.8% (2.4%)
Bill English 1.4% (2.0%)
Rodney Hide 1.2% (0.6%)
John Tamihere 0.9% (0.4%)
Peter Dunne 0.7% (0.6%)
Jeanette Fitzsimons 0.3% (0.4%)
Richard Prebble 0.2% ( - )

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