John Armstrong: Pre-election posturing will count for little

Winston Peters - who has point blank refused to talk about coalitions - talking of potential coalitions. Photo / Dean Purcell

In its final few days, the 2014 election campaign has turned from weird to surreal. And that is not even taking the Kim Dotcom circus into account.

We now have John Key - the man who sells himself as an anchor of stability - talking up scenarios of post-election instability. We now have Winston Peters - who has point blank refused to talk about coalitions - talking of potential coalitions.

What they are really talking about is how much leverage Peters will have, if, as seems more than likely, the election result points to some form of governing arrangement between National and New Zealand First as the most obvious outcome.

For Key, it means convincing voters thinking of jumping ship to New Zealand First that he will not allow Peters to drive as hard a bargain as Peters says he will in terms of getting National to agree to his ever-expanding list of policy priorities.

If negotiations break down, Key is flagging National continuing to rule in the minority. Key would put a confidence motion in front of the House. The message to Peters would be simple: abstain or support National on the motion, or take responsibility for forcing a fresh election.

Given the potential backlash if the latter happened - and the likelihood that Labour's David Cunliffe would have a hard job putting an alternative government together, Key is saying to voters that Peters will have much less leverage over National than might seem to be the case.

Peters' response yesterday was to raise the prospect of a Labour-New Zealand First government, possibly including the Greens as long as they were shut out of major portfolios such as finance. Peters' message to Key is that he, too, has options.

Of the six elections conducted under MMP, it has been pretty clear in the previous five who would be governing and with whom once the votes had been counted.

The onus will then be on Key and Peters to strike a deal if the latter holds the balance of power.

Parliament does not have to sit until November 20, allowing two months to form a government. Talks should take only two weeks.

Peters will get more goodies than the number of seats he holds will entitle him. Key will make sufficient concessions because retaining power is really National's only priority.

There will not be any talk about a fresh election because voters would not thank Peters or Key for putting the country through a repeat of the past few weeks.

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