Waikato University international law professor, Alexander Gillespie told The Front Page the most recent conflict in Gaza had been difficult for the past year, but to a degree had been contained and had not spread over borders.
“But what you’re seeing now is that the war is starting to expand, and even though there are different causes, they are related, and so what was once effectively within the territory that Israel controlled is now moving into other countries.
“The risk is that it won’t just stay in Lebanon, but it could also move towards Yemen and maybe in Syria because there’s some sympathy in Syria for some of these causes. But, there’s one country behind them all, which is Iran.
“The biggest fear right now is that Israel and Iran get into a fight. Hezbollah, the forces in Yemen, and those in Syria are all controlled by Iran. Right now there’s a very thin paper wall stopping that major regional conflict from breaking out,” he said.
Gillespie said if Iran got directly involved it was possible the United States would do so, too.
“That would have implications not just for America in their run-up to their presidential campaign, but for countries like New Zealand. Because we are part of a group of 10 countries that have pledged to help keep the international waterway of the Red Sea open.
“So, if it all kicked off in a worst-case scenario, it’s possible New Zealand could be asked to do more to help protect the Red Sea.”
The route is crucial for trade between New Zealand and Europe. Ships unwilling or unable to sail in that region often have to go around South Africa instead.
Hezbollah, a militant Shia Islamist movement, has been active since the 1980s and has received strong backing from Iran.
New Zealand’s Terrorism Designations Working Group declared the group’s military wing a terrorist entity in 2010. But, its political wing remains uncharacterised.
While Hezbollah has maintained it is “fighting in support of Palestinians”, Gillespie said the humanitarian catastrophe has been used as justification for violence.
“Hezbollah is currently one of the groups that is justifying some of their violence against the Israeli state because of the calamity which is happening in Palestine or the occupied territories.
“Having said that, if you actually were able to solve the Palestinian issue with the creation of a Palestinian state and the two-state option, it’s unlikely that peace would break out in the Middle East.
“You would just solve one part of the problem. They’re connected. But they are different at the same time,” he said.
Listen to the full episode to learn more about growing tensions in the Middle East.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
