Key electorate: Northcote

By SIMON COLLINS

You know it's election time when the candidates start standing in the rain and waving as you queue to get on to the motorway in the morning.

Both National's Jeremy Sole and Grant Gillon of Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition have been out there lately in Onewa Rd, in the most marginal Labour-held seat in the country, Northcote.

Despite her minuscule 278-vote majority, sitting Labour MP Ann Hartley must be the favourite to hold the seat, given Labour's huge lead in the national polls.

But with Mrs Hartley sure to get in on the party list anyway, at 35th place, her rivals are pinning their hopes on a split vote. If either of them wins the seat, Northcote voters will get two MPs instead of one.

Mr Sole, 42, was a surprise choice as National's candidate when he beat Rangitoto College principal Allan Peachey and former Wellington city councillor Stephen Rainbow at the party's selection meeting last December.

Party president Michelle Boag probably wanted one of the others. Mr Peachey may now get into Parliament off National's list, he has been ranked at 18, but Mr Sole's 44th place means his only hope is to win Northcote. For Ms Boag, as one activist said, Northcote was "the one that got away".

Jennifer Yorke, one of the 60 party delegates at the selection meeting, said Mr Sole won because he was the only one who bothered to visit every delegate. He also appealed as more personable than Ian Revell, the "abrasive" National MP from 1990-99.

Born in Dunedin, Mr Sole was a motor mechanic and then sold automotive equipment in Wellington before transferring to Auckland in 1989. He later studied human relations at university and became New Zealand manager of Friedman Group consultants.

He says he has knocked on almost 4500 doors, campaigning fulltime since January. His billboards were first on the streets.

But he is still much less known than either Mrs Hartley or Mr Gillon. A list MP, Mr Gillon quadrupled the combined Democrat/NewLabour vote to 23.4 per cent when he stood for the new Alliance Party in Glenfield in 1993, slipped to 11.7 per cent in the larger Northcote seat in 1996, but got 20.5 per cent in 1999.

Ranked third on the list of the new Progressive Coalition, he has little chance of getting back to Parliament this year unless he wins Northcote. On present polling, the coalition can expect only one or two seats.

He has distributed expensive CD-Roms about himself to people listed on the roll as students, and videos to those listed as retired. He appears to have more billboards than anyone else.

Now 48, the former firefighter says he is the best choice for voters who want a Labour Government but do not want to give it absolute power.

Leader Jim Anderton is expected to hold Wigram so a second electorate win could double the Progressive Coalition's numbers in Parliament if their party vote is weak.

Ann Hartley has some weaknesses. Glenfield Community Board chairman Gerald Sharrock, a Gillon supporter, says Mrs Hartley was ranked as "least visible MP" in one media scorecard last year. She won 36.5 per cent of the vote when she first stood in the old Birkenhead seat in 1993, dropped to just 27.4 per cent in the merged Northcote seat in 1996, and won with only 32.2 per cent in 1999.

But Mrs Hartley, 59, a former community worker who was North Shore Mayor from 1989-92, says her strength is in local issues. She has won rebuilding funds for several local schools and a new Samoan preschool in Beach Haven Rd.

She was "well ahead" in the only poll Labour has done in the seat, late last year.

Other candidates are legal editor Rachel Mackintosh, 34 (Greens), Telecom worker John Riley, 64 (NZ First), stud cattle photographer Dianne Dawson, 54 (Act), unionist Doug (Solly) Southwood, 56 (Alliance), Westminster Christian School chairman Dirk Hoek, 65 (Christian Heritage) and Sharee Adams (United Future).

Joint candidate meetings, all at 7.30pm, are at:

Northcote War Memorial Hall, Council Tce, July 17; Beach Haven Hall, Rangatira Rd, July 23; and Glenfield War Memorial Hall, Hall Rd, July 24.

Candidates

Sharee Adams - United Future

Dianne Dawson - Act

Grant Gillon - Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition

Ann Hartley - Labour

Dirk Hoek - Christian Heritage

Rachel Mackintosh - Greens

John Riley - New Zealand First

Jeremy Sole - National

Solly Southwood - Alliance

1999 Result: Ann Hartley - Labour (majority 278)

1996 Result: Ian Revell - National (majority 4563)

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