Editorial:Powder-keg in Indonesia

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Appearances can be deceptive. Look at Lombok, an Indonesian resort island catering for those who would rather not be among the million tourists who visit neighbouring Bali each year. Even a matter of weeks ago, there was nothing to suggest the island could be torn apart by religious violence. The international community was still patting itself on the back for its handling of the East Timor crisis. A newly elected President was making promising speeches about promoting democracy and ending corruption and economic hardship. A new House of Representatives represented a successful flirt with democracy. And supporters of the popular Megawati Sukarnoputri had been placated by her elevation to the vice-presidency. If being lulled by such developments was understandable, it also betrayed a blissful disregard for the fundamentals that underlie Indonesia, and which make it a potential powder-keg.

Indonesia is a country of huge diversity. It has 300 ethic groups, a multitude of languages and many religions. The parallels with Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union are obvious. And like those deceased entities, Indonesia's recent history is one of violence and brutality, spanning the eviction of the Dutch, Sukarno's crushing of the Communists, the excesses of Suharto and the attempt to suppress the independence movement in East Timor. If Jakarta was worried that the East Timorese could provide the spark that blew Indonesia apart, recent events will have reinforced its concern.

Lombok is, in fact, possibly less likely to ferment fragmentation than other regions of dissent. The attacks by Muslim mobs on Christians there and on Ambon appears to owe more to provocateurs linked to elements of the miltary and the ousted Suharto regime than a craving for secession. The ambition of those mobs could quite quickly change, however. President Abdurrahman Wahid, although a Muslim cleric, is widely seen as being too closely bound to a secular state. Religious violence may transmogrify into a thirst for independence as deeply held as that in Aceh, a gas-rich province of Sumatra, and in mineral-rich Irian Jaya, which borders Papua New Guinea.

Preventing the fragmentation of Indonesia is the main task facing the administration of President Wahid. Failure, and the destabilising of Indonesia, will send shockwaves far beyond Jakarta. Indonesia seized East Timor 25 years ago because it did not want a potential Marxist regime on its doorstep. Likewise, it fears the influence of independent and strongly Muslim states in what was formerly Indonesian territory. Concern about the potential for instability should, of course, resonate widely. Fragmentation of Indonesia would have a profound impact on the Asia-Pacific region.

It would be most convenient for New Zealand to cling to the rose-tinted view it has long held of its own backyard. The examples of East Timor and Lombok should, however, have shattered any illusions. Most fundamentally, this means that New Zealand must have a flexible and well-equipped Defence Force with a strike capability. Skimping on spending is no longer an option. It is also pointless seeking to tailor the armed forces to what is now seen as the likeliest area and method of engagement. The world is simply not that predictable - as the tourists who fled their island paradise this week will testify.