Dialogue: In pursuit of the new don't trample salt of the earth

Alarm bells ring when I see New Zealand's science funding body publishing suggestions that it is time we tilted the public purse toward support of new industries of the computer age at the expense of the sciences that have served us well.

Not just I but many earth scientists sigh when we hear, yet again, a minister making suggestions of diverting funds away from our world-leading earth sciences, and retraining the researchers who made those breakthroughs possible. The holy grail this time is Government-funded information technology research; the suggestion is published in the newsletter of New Zealand's science funding body.

Sir James Hector would have sighed, too. He was the irascible Scotsman with a passion for accuracy who, as the nation's science administrator, managed between 1860 and 1880 to set up a state-of-the-art national observing system for weather and earthquakes which is still the envy of the world.

His system was decimated in the 1880s in the name of economic restructuring. It wasn't until the 1930s that the earth sciences were reassembled and could again contribute to our economic and human well-being.

Now, New Zealand's earth scientists lead the world in a wide range of information technology applications. More obviously, they serve the country as expert advisers on earthquakes, storms, volcanic eruptions, erosion, water and electricity supply, air quality, fisheries, agriculture, crop and forestry production, and a whole range of other essential services.

In a Wellington City Council project, geologists have produced a multidimensional picture of Wellington which Chinese officials have said is the most sophisticated system they have seen.

The geographical information systems software accurately models likely potential hazards and their effects. As part of that, geologists have modelled the risks and hazards of various magnitude earthquakes at various times of the day for Wellington. This means the city council can assess the risk for any of its infrastructure. It is state-of-the-art stuff.

Similar innovation is going on all over the country. The Auckland Regional Council has set up a sophisticated early-warning seismic-monitoring system to detect volcanic eruptions.

The earth sciences that are producing world-renowned information technology successes do not just protect people, property and the environment. All of them also contribute substantially to New Zealand's excellence in exports - and, hence, to its economy.

Niwa - our water and atmospheric research institution - has, for example, developed valuable state-of-the-art technology which maps the seabed of our 200-mile exclusive economic zone. Every earth science research institute in New Zealand can produce similarly innovative and valuable examples.

Every world-class specialist - of whom we have many - shuddered when they read the words "no staff cuts, just retraining"and wondered whether this time they really should accept a tripling of salary in their specialist field and leave New Zealand.

We can ill-afford to accelerate the brain drain. All New Zealanders benefit from this expertise. All will need it more as our environment continues to strongly affect our economy, as it does worldwide.

Climate change alone will continue to wreak substantial changes. The world's scientific institutions have told us that climate change in the 21st century will mean an escalation in international disasters stemming from floods and droughts.

In New Zealand, floods and droughts are becoming increasingly expensive events. The insurance payouts for the Waikato River and Lake Wakatipu-Clutha River floods were higher than those for Cyclone Bola. The economic setback of the 1998-99 South Island droughts has been well documented.

And as the last flames of the December Marlborough grass fires are dampened, and the costs are assessed, Insurance Council estimates of industry payouts for natural disasters over the last quarter of the 20th century amount to $1 billion.

Then there were the two droughts of 1998 and 1999, which cost the country $5 billion. No wonder we caught a bad dose of the Asian flu during 1999. The environment was against us.

Today, climate research is developing accurate forecasts for the seasons ahead, which will enable land users to prepare for droughts and heatwaves. Geological research is improving our ability to monitor and predict the next earthquake and volcanic eruption - essential for a capital city located on the plate boundary.

Soundly based earth science research has provided the backbone for our economic development, and the protection of life and property.

Overseas scientific organisations have neither the desire nor the responsibility to undertake research vital to our country.

New Zealand institutions are carrying out important work in a range of areas, including atmosphere and climate, coastal processes, marine biodiversity, landscape processes and geological hazards and potential.

In the excitement over the lucrative possibilities offered by the new world of information technology, New Zealand must take care that existing core scientific abilities are not lost through a sudden lurch in priorities.

This would destabilise the existing system, which is geared to apply its research to market needs and which leads the world in many information technology applications.

Our approach to science funding needs to take a sophisticated look at where New Zealand is heading and where it wants to be in the world.

The answer may be more emphasis on the high-technology electronic, software and communications industries.

But it may equally be on the emerging technologies of biotechnology, genetic engineering, DNA research, alternative energy sources, environmental pollution mitigation (including greenhouse gas reduction) and marine technologies.

The analysis should be wide and deep and a balanced portfolio considered. We need to support the researchers in earth sciences who have demonstrated success in contributing to our environmental well-being and economic wealth.

* Dr Jim Salinger represents earth sciences and technologies on the council of the Royal Society of New Zealand.