KEY POINTS:
When Labour Party ministers meet in Helen Clark's office this morning, as they usually do before Cabinet on a Monday morning, you can bet the weekend polling shock will be top of their informal agenda.
The slump in Labour's support to 33.6 per cent shown in the Weekend
Herald-DigiPoll survey was reinforced in last night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll, which put it at 31.
Both polls show National so far ahead (17.3 points in the DigiPoll survey and 25 points in Colmar Brunton's) that it could win an outright majority if translated to an election result.
The ministers' immediate concerns will be who is shifting away from Labour, and the immediate answer is males.
National has traditionally attracted more male voters than Labour has in the DigiPoll survey.
In February, 43 per cent of men supported National and 38.6 per cent of men supported Labour.
In the weekend poll, 54.4 per cent of men supported National and just 29.3 per cent supported Labour.
That gender discrepancy is not such a shock given the re-emergence of the tax issue as one of the most important facing the country.
Men are disproportionately concerned with issues of tax and income and how to put the bread on the table.
Women are more concerned with issues of health, education and welfare.
The questions that the ministers will debate are not necessarily why the tide is running so strongly against them - because those issues have been well rehearsed.
But they may differ over what weight to give to the various reasons: the fatigue factor for a Government in its third term; the anti-smacking bill; law and order problems; John Key's six-month honeymoon as National leader; no tax cuts signalled until election year; the broken promise on indexing the personal tax brackets; a miscalculation on how KiwiSaver would be perceived; and a poorly sold Budget.
What Labour won't do in a day is decide how to reverse the tide running so strongly against it, but it will be wondering whether its plans need an overhaul.
It certainly cannot count on Mr Key to make fatal errors. It will be keeping a close eye on Australia, where long-serving Liberal Party Prime Minister John Howard is having no effect on the new Labor alternative, Kevin Rudd.
The poor showing for New Zealand Labour should help Helen Clark to prise some of the more stubborn MPs out of their insistence on staying for the next election.
Russell Fairbrother in Napier, Rick Barker in Tukituki, George Hawkins in Manurewa and Mark Burton in Taupo spring to mind. If they dig their toes in and Labour allows them to stay to avoid disunity, the party can still rejuvenate itself through a ruthless list-ranking process, whether or not such electorate MPs stand.
Helen Clark has already indicated that the protections on offer last time to sitting MPs will not be repeated.
But rejuvenation is not the answer to this mammoth problem.
The promise of 10 fresh faces on Labour's back bench after 2008 is not going to counter the one fresh face leading National.
A more likely answer for Helen Clark lies in her front bench and the perception of her party's leadership.
Hers is not in doubt. The party has almost complete faith in her. If anyone can drag them back into contention, it is her. She is unassailable.
Her deputy and Finance Minister, Michael Cullen, may not be.
His attitude to tax cuts may now be so deeply ingrained in voters' minds that he may be sacrificed - or he may sacrifice himself - before next year's Budget to someone such as Aucklanders Phil Goff or David Cunliffe with no tax baggage.
But the party will not act hastily to axe such a pivotal figure in its success.
There may be more thinking than talking today.
* The One News-Colmar Brunton poll party vote: National 56 per cent, Labour 31, Green 6, Maori Party 3, NZ First 2, United Future 1. Act did not rate.
