KEY POINTS:
A German woman of a Green mindset was castigating New Zealanders for their profligate consumption habits and neglect of recycling. "You should have 30 million people here. You would have to be more environmentally caring then," she told me.
In the discussion on mitigation of harmful climate change,
population is barely mentioned. Energy efficiency, conservation, renewables and carbon sequestration are all examined at length but halting growth is a taboo subject for nearly all politicians and most economists.
The Green Party has avoided population in its policies. It appears unconcerned about population growth, yet it is the crucial factor in pollution, resource depletion, global warming and loss of biodiversity, all issues central to Green politics.
The only politician I have heard express concern about population growth is Pita Sharples.
People must acknowledge that the Earth is, for practical purposes, finite in area and natural resources. Credible estimates of its sustainable carrying capacity range from 1 billon to 4 billion people. These figures depend on the standard of living, biodiversity and energy sources accepted. Earth's present population is 6 billion.
If women are liberated from oppression, and education and health are improved, birth rates drop. This happens despite opposition to birth control by some male religious leaders.
The low fertilities of Catholic Spain and Italy illustrate this. In Muslim Bangladesh, birth rates have dropped since women have had access to low-interest loans for businesses. Anything our Government can do to encourage this type of thing will magnify our minuscule reduction of greenhouse gas emission if in fact that occurs.
New Zealand's natural population growth has been calculated to reach zero in 2046 (4.8 million) and then become negative. But Labour and National plan significant net immigration. This will make reduction of our greenhouse emissions more difficult, if not impossible.
Energy Minister David Parker has said the Government's failure to meet Kyoto targets was because of economic growth. In part, immigration policy reflects an addiction to economic growth and failure to train our people in essential trades and professions.
Our economic system based on fractional reserve banking (where nearly all our money exists as interest-bearing debt) is unable to function without continued economic growth. Yet curbing greenhouse emissions requires cessation of growth other than that resulting from improved technology and efficiency. Economists are aware of this fatal flaw in the modern monetary system but those we hear in the news are usually bank employees whose vested interest in debt-funded growth is only too obvious.
Sustaining the pro-growth propaganda are University of Canterbury academics who are developing curricula on global warming for teachers but include the oxymoron sustainable growth.
Unless nations can reduce and eventually halt population growth by making appropriate economic and social reforms, the worst predictions of climate scientists become more realistic.
* Allen Cookson is a retired science teacher.
