Waitangi Day wasn’t nearly as ugly as anyone feared - Heather du Plessis-Allan

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaking at Waitangi Treaty House marae. Photo / Michael Cunningham

OPINION

In the end, Waitangi wasn’t nearly as ugly as anyone feared.

No dildos, mud clumps or punches were thrown.

That was a surprise because the build-up to the event had been massive. And we know what it can be like up there at the best of times. Even in years when race relations are much less tense than they are now, it has managed to get physical.

Instead of ugly scenes, there was conversation. Some of it was heated. Some of it was drowned out by singing. Some of it was fairly juvenile. But even school-boy smack talk beats violence any day.

More than surprising, it was a relief.

A traditional Māori culture show at Te Puia's whare nui on its marae on Waitangi Day. Photo / Michaela Pointon

Because what this year’s Waitangi demonstrated was that is it is possible for us to have the Treaty Principles debate without resorting to the violence Willie Jackson and John Tamihere have warned us will come. Clearly, it doesn’t have to.

If it is possible for both sides to hear each other out peacefully at Waitangi - a famously confrontational-at-times event - then it is possible to do it anywhere in this country.

It’s as if Waitangi let some pressure out of the Treaty Principles shouting match. The volume’s been turned down so we can talk.

Which makes Christopher Luxon’s timing bizarre. As if he was spooked by Waitangi, he chose the very next day to finally, clearly pick a side in the debate. He chose the side opposed to his coalition partner Act, by making it clearer than he ever had that he and National would kill the Treaty Principles Bill.

That may prove to be a reasonably big political mistake. There is a good chance Act’s bill will be popular.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was pulled up by media on his reluctance to address issues around the Treaty Principles Bill in his Waitangi speech or in a press conference afterwards.

The bill is cleverly written so that it’s hard to argue against. The three proposed principles are no-brainers: the Government is allowed to govern, we all have private property rights and we’re all equal under the law. Who doesn’t agree with that? Who can mount an argument against that without arguing for more rights for one ethnicity?

A Curia-Taxpayer’s Union poll in October found 60 per cent support for those principles. The support is consistent across every age group, both genders, all three major cities and supporters of all political parties. Even the Green Party. Even Wellington.

Awkwardly for Luxon, National Party voters like it too - 66 per cent of them. Which means he just chose to disagree with two-thirds of his own voters.

Maybe Luxon thinks they’ll change their minds once this debate kicks off. If he does, he’s probably wrong. Conservative National Party voters are the most likely of all voters to get irritated by special rights based on ethnicity and government departments doing dumb stuff because of Treaty principles.

Maybe he thinks he can change their minds himself, by leading the debate. If he does, he’s probably wrong again. If Mr Popularity himself - Sir John Key - couldn’t convince New Zealanders to back something as fun as a flag change, Luxon probably can’t convince voters to chill out about something as triggering as race relations.

Act leader David Seymour speaking to media at the Treaty Grounds.

Luxon may be underestimating how popular this bill could be. He’s almost certainly underestimating his opponent in David Seymour.

Seymour isn’t afraid of playing dirty. He’s deliberately made a fool of Luxon this week, saying that he thinks Luxon got nervous after Waitangi and that his mind can be changed by public popularity. That’s akin to saying the man has no spine and no principles.

Seymour has an advantage in this debate. He’s not afraid of controversy as Luxon is. In fact, he needs it. The more we talk about this bill, the more opportunities Seymour has to repeat his ideas, dispel the misinformation and convince more voters.

You saw this play out at Waitangi. Seymour walked up to the line of warriors, picked up the wero (challenge) and squared up to them for a long moment before retreating. He took his boos. Then he gave a speech defending his bill. Luxon gave a speech that never mentioned it.