Heather Du Plessis-Allan: Questions over New Zealand's post-vaccine future

The Government doesn't seem to have a plan for after Kiwis are vaccinated, writes Heather Du Plessis-Allan. Photo / Mark Mitchell

OPINION:

How crazy is it that none of us knows what happens to the country in less than six months' time?

Everything going to plan, we should all be jabbed by the end of the year. And then what?

No one knows. Not even Cabinet if you believe the Prime Minister, who says she doesn't have a plan yet.

What is it that you think happens?

I'm personally working under the assumption that vaccination leads to some reduced restrictions.

Because, otherwise, what's the point of us all getting the jab?

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Do we get to travel overseas without quarantining on return?

Shorter MIQ stays?

Permission to bring in offshore workers again?

The return of $5 billion worth of international students?

The return of some tourists?

We don't know.

And that's completely absurd given how many lives and businesses are waiting for this information.

Even more absurd is how little time before "next" arrives.

We have a clearer idea of what the health reforms will look like from mid-2022 (the DHBs will be gone), or what the Three Waters Reforms will look mid-2023 (only four big water agencies).

While both are important, they come nowhere near as important as what happens to our borders after the vaccine roll-out.

Australia knows roughly what will happen.

After vaccination, they will ease border restrictions on jabbed Aussies and only use lockdowns if Covid starts putting pressure on hospitals.

Singapore is planning to dump border quarantine once they're vaccinated.

The UK is lifting all restrictions in just over a week.

But, here, you have to piece tidbits together to decipher which way the Government is leaning.

And when you do, there's no suggestion vaccination means much.

One Cabinet minister has suggested he might erect purpose-built MIQ facilities to run for the next few years, one adviser has said border controls will run for another two to five years, another adviser has warned businesses to prepare for maybe three years of closed borders but — fingers crossed — vaccinated travellers might be allowed into the country without quarantine by early next year. Maybe.

This is no way for a country to run its economy. Businesses have no idea what to plan for in only six months' time.

We have growers labouring under the assumption they only have to make it through one more season without staff and then things will go back to normal.

There are tourism operators without tourists, restaurants without chefs, white collar employers without foreign skilled workers. All of them are just holding on for the other side of the vaccine roll-out in the hope a jab equals a return to some normality.

This week we've learned just how bad our worker shortage is. We're now at never-before-seen levels, close to full employment, at risk of burnt-out and poaching staff off each other in a game of musical chairs.

Will the jab mean we can start bringing workers in and fix this? Your guess is as good as mine.

Clearly, the PM and her advisers are thinking about this. They say they're watching the world's reopening for lessons.

But, frankly, many of us are thinking about it.

That now needs to turn into making decisions about it - or even just giving us a rough idea about it.

Because even if the Government doesn't yet have a plan, some Kiwis getting their jabs do: plans to holiday, plans to visit offshore family, plans to get workers in.

Their expectations will only mount with each jab, each passing month. The Government had better get itself a plan. Six months isn't a lot of time.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive, Newstalk ZB, 4-7pm, weekdays.

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