Five years ago I travelled around the country researching a history of New Zealand ports, which was published in 2012 as The Saltwater Highway by David Bateman. Almost every port chief executive I spoke to predicted that Auckland would be down to the Fergusson container wharf within 10 years and that in the future New Zealand would probably be able to economically accommodate only two major international ports able to take ships of increasing size - one in the North Island and one the South. They all agreed that the best deepwater port in the country is Marsden Point. But which ports would they be? No one would guess.
And, anyway, is the volume of exports and imports large enough, year-round, to warrant regular calls from these new, vast cargo vessels? At the moment, we really hub off Singapore but, given the required volume, would we be better advised to hub again off Brisbane or Sydney?
Given the huge amounts of capital required to dredge a channel through the Gulf for super-ships, were those chief executives right that Auckland should become an import port only for the needs of the city and its immediate environs? What would be the trade-off between the economic use of much of the land now occupied by the port and the cost of alternative port and rail services through inland ports, using Tauranga and/or Marsden Point?
Would it be better for the nation if we threw the capital and energy at Marsden Point and developed the notional railway that exists between the port and the Whangarei line south, requiring a very expensive upgrade of that railway right down through the isthmus? How would costs balance against the ever increasing cost of roads and their maintenance? (Roads seem to be an acceptable cost, while railways must make a profit.)
It interests me that, for example, last I checked, Fonterra sent its exports from Taranaki (a considerable dairy producing province) across the country by rail for export from Tauranga, with some going through Napier and Auckland. My information was also that Mainfreight was an enthusiastic user of railway freight.
Is there another country in the world more dependent for its living on efficient export-import supply-line services? (Can't think of one.)
I know the answer to none of the above questions, or dozens of others that are relevant, but I am interested. What appals me is the Government doesn't seem to be -- any more than it concerned itself in measuring how much foreign money was coming into the real estate market.
In Britain, the House of Commons has a bipartisan national transport committee overseeing, among other things, a national port strategy. The ports are privately owned but the Government there says that the ramifications of container movements press heavily on onshore infrastructure so there has to be some consultation on development. Perhaps this is why 42 per cent (and rising) of all UK container traffic goes through Felixstowe, on the North Sea, about two hours north of London.
In 2007, the UK Government recommended that "the major UK ports produce master plans, and consult on them, in order to help co-ordinate their future planning". Australia has a national port strategy. As far as I can discover, all other Western nations have national port strategies. Our Government's role on port development has been described as hands-off.
In 2007, the Ministry of Transport completed a survey on coastal shipping. The report described itself as "the beginning of a new partnership between the Government and the coastal shipping industry". On which bureaucratic reef did that survey founder?
While the Auckland Council considers plans for mindless port expansion, the Government, through the Ministry of Transport, could change the constitution of the port company and at least seek a pause while an attempt was made by our many able independent economists and transport experts to provide us with the information towards a future national strategy. We're not talking central planning, we're talking common sense.
It won't happen because ignorance seem to be prevailing as bliss. I meet American tourists on a regular basis and it's striking how many of them remark that New Zealanders seem so "calm".
"No, no," I say, "not calm, comatose".