GNS cuts could ‘devastate’ critical research on NZ’s biggest tsunami threat, 85 scientists warn

Cost cutting at GNS Science could “devastate” research efforts to understand New Zealand’s biggest tsunami threat, more than 80 international experts have warned.

In July, the Lower Hutt-based Crown Research Institute announced a proposal to cut more than 100 roles and create 37 new ones, in what it called a “difficult but necessary step” toward financial sustainability.

Among 46 science roles proposed to go were a dozen in data science and geohazards monitoring, and another two in natural hazards risk modelling roles, according to a consultation document shared with staff.

Its geohazard monitoring team was also proposed to be disestablished and combined with its event response capability team to “co-locate” all the institute’s 24/7 monitoring functions.

A final decision on the restructuring was set to be announced later this month.

Now the Herald can reveal 85 top scientists from around the world have signed a letter warning that, if the cuts go ahead, it could take decades for New Zealand to rebuild capability in critical areas.

One area they singled out was the Hikurangi Subduction Zone - a plate boundary area that’s been given one-in-four odds of sourcing a massive, magnitude-8.0 event within the next 50 years.

Earlier this year, scientists warned a major tsunami from the zone could kill more than 22,000 and injure nearly 26,000.

Some of those proposed to have their roles cut were instrumental in international science partnerships to understand the hazard, the letter said.

A letter signed by 85 scientists from seven countries has urged GNS Science to rethink a restructure that would eliminate dozens of jobs.

A decade of work on it has already attracted more than $100 million in international investment, and the loss of specialist staff would “devastate these research efforts”.

It also warned the cuts could jeopardise the ability to respond to future disasters and urged GNS to look at cost-saving measures that didn’t undermine core science capability.

Among the signees is renowned US geophysicist Professor Demian Saffer, who told the Herald the proposed cuts had “shocked” the international community.

“The fact that such eminent scientists, who have been central to so many important hazards-related studies, could be on the chopping block is incredibly disappointing to those of us outside of New Zealand.”

Another signee, University of Tokyo earthquake scientist Professor Kimihiro Mochizuki, said there’d been little feedback from GNS management about the concerns in the letter, which it’d received a month ago.

“This has increased our fears that they intend to follow through with all of the proposed cuts, which will do great damage to New Zealand geoscience and our critical international partnerships.”

Geoscience Society of New Zealand immediate past president Dr Katherine Holt said the letter showed the potential cuts were seen as a threat to the country’s capacity to manage its own natural resources and disaster risks, and could also affect research efforts “on a global scale”.

“It is clear our international reputation in the sciences is going to take a big hit if these cuts go ahead.”

A GNS spokesperson yesterday told the Herald that the restructure was progressing “as per the consultation document” - but that it wouldn’t be commenting further while the process was still under way.

In its initial public statement, GNS, which currently employs 528 people, said growing its financial sustainability would be “critical” for making strategic investments in its people, assets and capabilities.

“We have been focused on operating with fiscal prudence, seeking cost savings where possible and looking hard at any discretionary spending,” GNS said.

“Now, considering the size of our workforce alongside other cost saving measures is a difficult but necessary step on a longer journey to financial sustainability.”

In setting out its rationale for the cuts to staff, GNS blamed “inconsistent” financial results, not enough focus on generating profit and a projected decline in revenue.

Responding to the letter, Public Service Association national secretary Duane Leo took aim at the Government, arguing it was “blind” to the national value the international scientists had pointed out.

“This is cold, hard evidence from international experts who well know the difference GNS scientists make to our ability to prepare for earthquakes and climate change,” Leo said.

“Yet again it proves that these cuts are more about saving money than harnessing the long-term benefits of science and research.”

The office of the Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology, Judith Collins, has seen the letter but has declined to comment, deeming the matter an “operational” one for GNS.

Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.

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