Forecasters are keeping a close eye on two tropical lows and potential cyclones developing north of New Zealand this week.
Niwa principal scientist Chris Brandolino said there is no certainty at this stage that the wild weather will reach our shores, but it is a good idea to watch the forecast in the coming weeks.
MetService is reporting it is also tracking the lows, with the risk of it developing into a cyclone climbing to moderate tomorrow.
Brandolino said Earth Sciences is monitoring a tropical low developing between Fiji and New Caledonia this week.
He said there are reports from overseas forecasters that it had a “medium chance” of developing into a tropical cyclone.
However, a ridge of high pressure is expected to shield NZ from a possible cyclone.
“And then, to the east of Fiji, as we get toward the weekend and into next week, there may be another opportunity ... for something to kind of form up there, a tropical low or something else.
“And that probably is a bit more worthy of watching.”
He said it was a lot further out than the possible cyclone activity, and there was no certainty it would travel south towards NZ.
Brandolino said they are currently expecting very little rain across much of the country over the next 10 days.
“Maybe the West Coast gets some rain, but nothing like we saw last week.
“So it will be a welcome sort of break in the action.”
Outlook for the week👀
— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 26, 2026
The week ahead brings a lower chance of severe weather
A cool, showery start gives way to relatively calmer conditions from mid-week, especially in the North Island
Temperatures increase, while Canterbury sees sharp swings later in the week pic.twitter.com/1lLXzIKiQa
MetService reported on its tropical cyclone bulletin that it is tracking two tropical lows that have the potential to develop into cyclones.
One is located west of Vanuatu and a second between the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands.
They said today the one east of Vanuatu has a low risk of developing, but tomorrow that risk increases to moderate.
The low between the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands has a very low risk of developing.
Brandolino said that over the next few weeks, there are signs that there would be heightened activity in similar areas.
He said there is expected to be a lull in mid-February, before things start to ramp back up towards the end of the month and early March.
“Even if something did form up there, it doesn’t mean it comes to our neck of the woods.
“It could stay out to sea and be what we call a fish storm, you know, basically just for shipping and Navy interest and any kind of island nations that may be out there.”
Brandolino also wanted to remind the public that a tropical cyclone does not need to develop for serious, deadly consequences.
“What happened last week was a tropical low.
“It didn’t quite reach the threshold of a tropical cyclone, so it did not get a name.
“However, it had a lot of tropical moisture with it, and it was that tropical moisture that was the fuel for the really heavy rain and the impacts that we saw.”
He said any time weather comes from the tropics or subtropics, it elevates the chances for massive rainfall amounts.
“I guess it’s just a reminder that whenever our weather comes or is connected to the north, the tropical north, to have that heightened awareness.”