Fewer Kiwis leave for Australia

The net population gain from migration jumped last month as fewer New Zealanders left for Australia.

The net inflow of permanent and long-term migrants - those leaving for at least a year or arriving after being out of the country for at least a year - was 3600, up from 1200 in January and a scant 100 in December.

There were 1200 fewer departures than in February 2008, including 1000 fewer leaving for Australia, Statistics New Zealand said.

Adjusted for seasonal effects the net inflow was 1700, compared with 700 in January and 300 in December.

It brought the annual inflow to 6200, the highest it has been since November 2007, but still well below the 10-year average gain of 11,500.

Migration to Australia from here hit a peak in the year ended last month, with 48,500 heading to Australia on a permanent or long-term basis, with only 13,100 coming the other way.

However, ASB economist Jane Turner said the pace at which New Zealanders were heading across the Tasman was set to rapidly decline. "New Zealanders with good jobs are likely to stay put in the current environment. The Australian economy has not been immune to the global credit crunch."

Its GDP contracted 0.5 per cent and its unemployment rate is at a four-year high of 5.2 per cent. "Employment opportunities are waning, especially in the mining sector, which has been hard hit by the collapse in commodity prices over the past six months," Turner said. Compared with February last year there were 200 more returning expatriates and 400 more people arriving on student permits.

Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert believes another pick-up in net immigration is brewing. "Generally speaking net inward migration to New Zealand tends to increase when the world turns ugly. We saw this in the period following the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and during the global recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s."

The biggest driver of the net number was New Zealanders who would otherwise have ventured abroad choosing to stay put, Ebert said. The next most important fact was expatriates returning. The BNZ forecasts the annual inflow to return to 12,000 by the end of the year and rise above 20,000 next year.