New Zealand still isn’t on track to meet its climate change goals by the end of this decade – and needs to urgently drive shifts to greener approaches and remove barriers to cutting pollution.
That’s the message the Climate Change Commission has issued to the new coalition Government, in just-released advice recommending a raft of steps to take in coming years.
New Zealand has mandated a net emissions budget of 305 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) between 2026 and 2030 – and needs to strip out a projected 43.5MtCO2e, or around what 3.6 million cars would produce, over that period.
About 40 per cent of those cuts are expected to come from energy and industry, with smaller contributions coming from transport, agriculture and forestry.
“The biggest opportunity is to replace fossil fuels - like coal, gas and petrol - with renewable energy, to power our industries, our buildings and our transport systems,” said the commission’s chair Dr Rod Carr.
“This is a critical step where, in many cases, investments made now in energy efficiency, electric vehicles, and renewable energy will more than pay for themselves in the long term.”
The commission’s analysis showed that replacing fossil fuels with renewable electricity in areas such as transport and heating could save businesses and households around $2 billion each year by the 2040s.
Elsewhere among the commission’s 27 recommendations were retrofitting buildings, preparing for a rapid roll-out of low-emissions tech on farms, directly resourcing iwi efforts to slash climate pollution, and sorting out the Emissions Trading Scheme and the role of forests.
“If we act now on reducing climate pollution, we can avoid additional costs and disruption as the country tries to catch up on its climate goals in the years ahead,” Carr said.
“For example, to meet our climate goals we need a big reduction in climate pollution from transport in the early 2030s, but this relies on more people replacing their petrol and diesel cars with EVs this decade.”
From next year, the commission will independently assess and publicly report on how the country is tracking against emissions budgets, and how well emissions reduction plans are being delivered.
“Whatever the mix of policies the Government decides on for the second emissions reduction plan, they must add up to meet our immediate climate goals and keep the country on the path to net zero.”
The Government has until the end of next year to consider the advice and release its own emissions reduction plan for the period.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts welcomed the report and said the Government was starting work on doubling renewable energy production and removing consenting barriers in its first 100 days in office.
Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.