John Armstrong: Repackaging lacks oomph

Float like a butterfly, sting like a butterfly: the Don Brash version of political pugilism was very much to the fore at Orewa last night.

The National Party leader's traditional start-of-year tub-thumper was all tub and little thump. No wonder his colleagues scrupulously avoided talking up the speech in advance.

To be fair, this year's sermon was necessarily more subdued than its raucous predecessors on race and welfare because it was delivered at a time of post-election reassessment.

But did it have to be so subdued?

The last two Orewa speeches were pre-election single-issue attention-grabbers designed to polarise opinion and jolt voters off the fence and down onto National's side.

National is now trying to appear more inclusive. To win in 2008, National must woo a chunk of middle-ground voters - mainly women - who have found the party's image too abrasive and too uncaring.

Last night's speech reveals National repackaging itself as a more sharing, caring beast.

The moderation was apparent in Dr Brash talking of getting much more value from the health dollar - not just for efficiency's sake, but to boost hospital services and the availability of new drugs.

However, the softening of National's image is no reason for a soft speech. Orewa IV - largely a dissertation on why Labour is to blame for the "faltering economy" - lacks oomph.

It should be measured against two yardsticks. Will its economic critique give Labour pause for worry? No. Will the new issues that Dr Brash has marked out for special attention this year - immigration, health spending, and striking a balance between building infrastructure and preserving the environment - reap more votes for National? Only marginally.

On the economy, Dr Brash does make the telling point that Labour will have no excuse to fall back on if things slump into recession.

His prime beef is that low growth in productivity is holding New Zealand back and widening the income gap with Australia.

National highlighted this argument at the last election and basically offered the same remedies - tax cuts, building more roads, altering labour laws and so on - as Dr Brash outlined in last night's speech. There was nothing new by way of solutions.

The debate about relative living standards between New Zealand and other countries failed to get any traction in the election campaign. Dr Brash will hope that it will do so now the economy is palpably slowing.

But immediate attention will focus on his call for a review of immigration policy. He fears it has evolved without serious public debate, yet could weaken the glue that holds New Zealand society together. It is about the only thing in the speech which might get talkback radio excited.

But if it is a "sleeper" issue about to burst into life, the Prime Minister has headed him off at the pass.

Labour is already scheduled to review immigration policy as part of its confidence and supply agreement with NZ First. Helen Clark has also got in first on health spending, saying two weeks ago she wanted far tighter fiscal discipline.

The best that can be said is that Orewa IV draws the political battlelines for the parliamentary year.

It pulls its punches on obvious targets - for example, Winston Peters being Foreign Minister and Helen Clark's governing arrangement.

Dr Brash may be saving all that for his next big speech - his reply to the Prime Minister's formal opening statement when Parliament resumes in two weeks. That speech was arguably shaping to be as important for Dr Brash in getting his year off on a strong note as was last night's - now maybe more so.