Orewa won't decide the election. That much we learnt from last year. But it will set the tone for National's entry into election year.
Don Brash's speech will be important for morale in the party at large. It will be important as a hook, or not, for National's core vote
and key financial backers. And it will be important as an indicator whether Brash can convert votes from Labour.
That is his task this year, starting today. By the end of 2004 most of the conversions from Labour he had won at Orewa had reverted. The lasting damage was greater to ACT and New Zealand First.
Orewa produced its temporary conversions last year because middle New Zealand was uneasy or worse about the impact of the Treaty of Waitangi, the Appeal Court had sharpened that unease with its ruling on the foreshore and seabed, Brash's speech oozed sincerity and authority and Maori radicals ratcheted up the political temperature on Waitangi Day.
There is no such alignment of political planets now. Welfare, if that is his central theme, is more likely to confirm National-leaners in their choice than drag Labour-leaners across the divide.
That is especially so if Brash runs a hard line. Nothing illustrates that better than that welfare speaker Katherine Rich is uncomfortable with slick slogans and harsh measures.
That points up National's and Brash's difficult balancing act: for the party, in its policy and in its second-level shadow ministers, to present a centre-right alternative to Labour, accenting the centre; for Brash, albeit of the right, not the centre-right, to be a commanding leader.
That is not an impossible feat. If Brash and National can pull it off, they are in with a real chance in the election, even if households are economically buoyant.
Today will be a first clue whether he can.
