The contest for the Auckland Central electorate has been thrown wide open by the resignation of popular incumbent and National MP Nikki Kaye. Photo / Getty Images
The contest for the Auckland Central electorate has been thrown wide open by the resignation of popular incumbent and National MP Nikki Kaye. Photo / Getty Images
As the election campaign revs up, the Herald examines key seats around the country. Today Isaac Davison looks at some of the most interesting Auckland contests*.
Auckland Central
Auckland Central was already one of closest races in the country before the departure of popular National Party incumbent Nikki Kaye. Shehas been replaced by a relative unknown, bank PR manager Emma Mellow, following a
which has given National a stumbling start in the contest.
With Kaye gone, and Labour riding high on Jacinda Ardern's popularity, its candidate Helen White could make a claim to being the frontrunner. She has name recognition from running in 2017, when she won 40 per cent of the candidate votes - more than the Labour vote of 38 per cent.
Make a beeline for the Beehive
Get weekly politics headlines with commentary from our political experts straight to your inbox.
National candidate in Auckland Central Emma Mellow was chosen after a messy selection process. But she could benefit from the presence of two strong left-wing candidates in the race. Photo / Supplied
Labour's Auckland Central candidate Helen White (left), pictured at an election debate with National MP Erica Stanford and TOP candidate Tuariki Dalamere. Photo / Dean Purcell
White's bid is complicated by the Green candidate and high-profile sitting MP, Chloe Swarbrick, who is running a "two-ticks" campaign. With Greens hovering around the crucial 5 per cent threshold in public polling, an electorate win would be a lifeline for the Greens to stay in Parliament.
Swarbrick has a strong track record as a campaigner. She came from nowhere to place third in the Auckland mayoralty race in 2016, and won 12 per cent of the candidate vote in Maungakiekie in 2017 despite not focusing on the candidate vote. She will need to grow the candidate vote to at least 30 per cent in Auckland Central - around 10,000 votes - to have a chance of a huge upset.
If Swarbrick gets some momentum, she could also split the left-wing vote, making it easier for Mellow to win.
Green MP and Auckland Central candidate Chloe Swarbrick is going all-out to win the seat, which could split the left-wing vote. Photo / Dean Purcell
Botany
The contest for Botany will be the first political test for former Air NZ CEO Christopher Luxon, who is tipped by some to be a future National Party leader.
While it is considered a safe seat for National, his path to victory is made slightly more difficult by former National MP Jami-Lee Ross, now running under a breakaway party Advance NZ. Since resigning from National in 2018, the rogue MP has been dishing the dirt on his former party, in particular its electoral donations.
Ross won the Botany seat with a 12,000-vote majority in 2017. It is unlikely he will take those voters with him - National voters are loyal and will back the blue candidate. Many of them will feel Ross has betrayed National. But he won't go down without a fight, and there could be some fireworks on the campaign trail.
In a desperate attempt to boost his support, Ross has teamed up with the newly-formed NZ Public Party, a fringe group which promotes conspiracy theories.
New Lynn
Labour has held New Lynn since it was created in 1963, but the race this year could be closer than any other. Changes to the electorate's boundary mean that, on paper, the seat has become marginal. The electorate has now absorbed parts of West Auckland which used to be in the National-majority Helensville electorate.
But that is on paper, and 2020 is a very different election to 2017, given Labour's rise in popularity.
Labour's Dr Deborah Russell won the seat in 2017 by 2800 votes. Lisa Whyte, the National candidate and local board member, is low profile and is ranked at 49th on National's list, which means she is likely to need to win the seat to get into Parliament.
Takanini
Takanini is a completely new electorate being contested for the first time. It is mostly made up of National leader Judith Collins' old Papakura electorate, and smaller portions of the Manurewa and Hunua electorates.
Analysis of 2017 general election data suggests it is "light blue" - likely to have a slight National majority. However, that does not take into account Labour's huge growth in popularity in the last three years, which could make the contest very close.
Both National's candidate, lawyer and businesswoman Rima Nakhle, and the Labour candidate, GP Neru Leavasa, are first-timers. History shows that when faced with first-time candidates, voters tend to stick with their party colours rather than changing teams. Only a high-profile candidate is likely to change a voters' minds, and neither of the main parties' candidates are in that camp.
One factor on National's side is that Nakhle is being helped by Auckland councillor Daniel Newman, a close associate of Collins who is considered one of the best campaigners in the city.
The electorate is also being contested by Elliott Ikilei, deputy leader of New Conservatives, who could possibly steal a few of National's more conservative or hard-right voters.
Te Atatu
Labour MP Phil Twyford has been growing a comfortable majority in Te Atatu over the last two elections.
But as a minister, his failures have been large and high-profile. KiwiBuild has been this Government's most glaring failure, and he lost his housing portfolio because of it. Light rail in Auckland, a key part of his transport portfolio, has also stalled.
The question is whether his constituents care about his ministerial-level failures. Twyford's popularity does not appear to have been dented by blunders in previous terms, in particular his attempt to blame Auckland's house price inflation on people with Chinese-sounding names.
Voters are choosing between a high-ranking minister who still has significant power in Cabinet, and a National Party backbencher whose stocks appear to be falling. Alfred Ngaro was demoted by Judith Collins in National's list rankings from 20 to 30, meaning he may need to win the seat to survive as an MP.
