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Home / New Zealand

Editorial: Trump remains a frontrunner in next US presidential election

NZ Herald
14 May, 2023 05:00 PM3 mins to read

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Former president and GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump at a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, in April. Trump has just been ordered to pay US$5 million (NZ$8m) in damages to Jean Carroll after a jury found him liable of sexual abuse, but not rape. Photo / New York Times

Former president and GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump at a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, in April. Trump has just been ordered to pay US$5 million (NZ$8m) in damages to Jean Carroll after a jury found him liable of sexual abuse, but not rape. Photo / New York Times

Editorial

EDITORIAL:

It’s 18 months until the next United States presidential election and the elephant in the room suggests it will be long and torturous.

Former President Donald Trump was ruled to be a sex abuser, but not a rapist, in a New York civil jury defamation trial last week and ordered to pay US$5 million (NZ$8m) to his accuser.

It’s one of a number of legal cases that would doom the candidacy of a conventional politician but Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican Party’s nomination, which would give him the opportunity to get his old job back.

Whether that’s likely or not in a general election against the sitting president is a separate issue. Trump is a dangerous person to be put in the position of possibly regaining that job.

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The list of reasons why someone else would be a better nominee includes the fact that he’s been impeached twice and indicted on criminal charges. He continues to repeat lies that the 2020 election was “rigged” and distort what happened in the US Capitol insurrection.

CNN copped a huge backlash on social media for hosting a “Town Hall” meeting with Trump in front of a Maga-heavy audience.

It clearly showed the problems the US political system and media have in dealing with an authoritarian, from one of only two major parties, with millions of party supporters, running for the highest office. Plenty of commentators believed it to be an irresponsible way of covering a man for whom facts are an inconvenience. Taped interviews offer the chance to air opinions with proper fact-checking.

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But the ugliness on display was also an in-your-face dose of reality in case any US voters, and people watching overseas, had faded memories of the Trump years. This is how it is.

As The Economist pointed out, Trump’s primary campaign so far has been more organised than last time, but at this televised event he was “unfiltered”.

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When Trump called his accuser a “whack job” some in the audience laughed and applauded him. He called CNN host Kaitlan Collins “a nasty person” to similar approval.

He called the attack on the US Capitol by his supporters in January 2021 a “beautiful day” and said the rioters had “love in their heart”. He said he would want to pardon many of them.

Without doubt, Trump provided the Democrats with ammunition to remind non-Maga voters what could be at stake. On abortion rights, for instance, Trump said: “The fact I was able to terminate Roe v Wade after 50 years of trying ... and I was so honoured to have done it.”

President Joe Biden’s team cut a couple of effective ads using Trump’s comments, including one which contrasted his words with footage of the Capitol rioters.

But margins in the swing states will be tight; it will be a battle of base turnout enthusiasm and drawing in moderate independents. The previous two elections were effectively decided by a small city of voters, spread out over a few states.

Nothing will sway hardcore Trump supporters, and other Republican candidates have to take him on to offer an alternative.

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From a New Zealand point of view, it’s a reminder that a very different US administration may not be far away. For instance, there would be upheaval in US policy towards Ukraine should Trump return to office.

New Zealand will need a balanced approach to its diplomacy.



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