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Home / New Zealand

Editorial: New virus variant is a turbo-charged Covid

NZ Herald
1 Jan, 2021 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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Ambulances outside the Royal London Hospital. England Health Service figures show hospitals now have more Covid-19 patients than during April's first-wave peak. Photo / AP

Ambulances outside the Royal London Hospital. England Health Service figures show hospitals now have more Covid-19 patients than during April's first-wave peak. Photo / AP

Editorial

EDITORIAL

As we move into 2021, it's clear that we will still be doused in backwash from the past year.

Alarming reports on the new Covid-19 variants should put New Zealand on extra alert if we want to keep it out of the community.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC) said that the new variants, first noticed in Britain and South Africa, pose a high risk because of turbo-charged spread putting more people in danger.

Researchers in the UK have found no evidence that the British variant is likely in itself to cause more severe disease or higher death rates. And it isn't surprising: viruses naturally evolve.

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But the British variant reportedly has a 50 per cent increase in transmissibility. That means that the potential for people to be admitted to hospital and for health systems to be overwhelmed is greater. Dr Sonia Adesara, an emergency doctor in London, told the BBC that hospitals there had "seen a massive rise in people coming in with Covid-19".

A new analysis from Public Health England says contacts of people with the new variant are more likely to develop the disease. Data revealed that 15 per cent of people whose contact had the variant became infected compared to 10 per cent normally. A different study suggests the variant has a higher viral load.

How the body responds to the coronavirus cannot be predicted. Some unfortunate survivors have symptoms for months afterwards.

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Since the UK's new variant was reported, the number of countries reporting cases of it has grown. The ECDPC says they include: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Lebanon, South Korea, Switzerland and Singapore. This week it was also detected in the United States.

In contrast, there have been two cases of the South African variant in Britain and one in Finland, linked to travel.

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The ECDPC report says: "Although there is no information that infections with these strains are more severe, due to increased transmissibility the impact of Covid-19 disease in terms of hospitalisations and deaths is assessed as high, particularly for those in older age groups or with co-morbidities."

It added: "The impact of this increased pressure on health systems is considered to be high even if current public health measures are maintained."

New Zealand has announced a new Covid-19 test for day one of managed isolation and quarantine, in addition to the existing day three and day 12 tests, as an extra layer of protection.

About 900 tests are carried out daily in MIQ facilities. Between the end of August and the first week of November, 27 people in such facilities refused tests. The Government is able to get refuseniks to stay longer.

The question of whether there should be an added barrier in the form of pre-flight tests for returnees has become a topic of debate.

With improving accuracy, pre-flight testing could be one tool in the armoury but quarantining, and testing in isolation, are still the most effective border controls, especially until vaccines are widely administered (thankfully, the UK's chief medical officer Chris Whitty says there is every reason to think that the vaccines will still work against this new strain).

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Tests could be a somewhat flawed system but they would screen out people already positive before they fly. A person about to fly who gets a positive test would be able to delay their travel. People intending to return could try to ensure this doesn't happen by voluntarily self-isolating for the quarantine period before their travel date.

Coronavirus tests are not always accurate and a traveller could be infected while in transit after testing negative. Reliance on testing could simply spread complacency about the risks of infection.

With new variants increasingly spreading we are in a dangerous pre-vaccine period. All the more reason then to comply with the alert level 1 advice: stay at home if sick; maintain good hygiene, wear face coverings in crowded places and track where you've been.

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