Even better news for Labour is the byelection to be held next month in the Northland seat vacated by National's Mike Sabin in unexplained circumstances. Photo / NZME.
Even better news for Labour is the byelection to be held next month in the Northland seat vacated by National's Mike Sabin in unexplained circumstances. Photo / NZME.
Opinion
Labour leader Andrew Little would not have had to look far for reasons to be positive when he addressed his party's two-day caucus meeting yesterday.
The easiest decision would have been which good news not to raise: the latest opinion poll showing his personal approval ratings to be the highestfor Labour since Helen Clark; there are too many ex-leaders in the meeting for that. Other MPs could mention it if they wished.
For Mr Little, Labour's party rating being up three percentage points in both the Herald-Digipoll from December and the current TV3 survey is one potential talking point. In some ways a bounce is to be expected after the dire election night result of just 25 per cent of the vote and, in both the latest polls, National rose as well.
A better omen is the stunning result in Queensland's state election, where Labor recovered from a drubbing in 2012 of apocalyptic proportions to be on the cusp of government once undecided seats are declared. The likely defeat for the Liberal-Nationals made our Labour Party's failure look benign. The factors in the demise of Campbell Newman and his Government will also cheer Labour here. The electorate turned against asset sales, a shrinking of the public service and further measures of austerity.
The capacity for an electoral swing of such magnitude in a like-minded neighbour must inspire Labour MPs in their quest to evict John Key and National in the space of one term with Mr Little as their leader. Parties written off as dead can and do return to government as the electorate's mood changes, albeit with our MMP system tempering voter reaction against the incumbent. Self-satisfied Governments can be found out, vulnerable before their pollsters realise the tide is turning.
Even better news for Labour is the byelection to be held next month in the Northland seat vacated by National's Mike Sabin in unexplained circumstances. Labour has nothing to lose. Mr Little has much to gain. Northland has been a National stronghold for many terms and the Sabin majority was around 9300 four months ago. While the sudden poll will test the Labour Party financially so soon after the general election, Mr Little will have an early chance to learn leadership campaigning.
He can take his vague "jobs, jobs, jobs" message of last week's major speech and flesh out how Labour intends to develop work through support for small businesses. He can highlight social and economic inequality in one of the most deprived regions of the country. The party and its candidate will be able to make an early show of having listened to the electorate, dropped unpopular policies and narrow ideological planks.
National has a chance to select a strong candidate with higher potential than the dogmatic and combative Mr Sabin. However the early poll is an inconvenience, thrusting forward awkward issues like National's transfer of state houses to social housing providers. That policy needs time for ministers to come up with a coherent argument to sell it. Labour has the chance to capitalise, much earlier than it might have hoped.
* An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated Mr Sabin's majority.
