Having started as a protest against Amini’s death after she allegedly broke Iran’s strict Islamic dress code for women, the focus has widened into trying to bring down the theocracy itself.
Universities have played an important part in keeping the unrest going - resulting in a crackdown from the authorities using live ammunition, anti-riot pellets, and tear gas. In contrast to the Green movement of 2009, demonstrators have not held large gatherings.
The country’s clerical-run system, backed by security forces including the Revolutionary Guard, has been in place for more than four decades. Crowds have shouted “Death to [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei”.
At the weekend, guard chief, General Hossein Salami told Iranians: “Today is the end of the riots. Do not go to the streets anymore. This ominous sedition will bring no happy ending to you. Do not ruin your future.”
It appeared to be a clear warning that the guard corps could be unleashed on the brave demonstrators, alongside police and the guard’s voluntary militia.
Iran’s authoritarian regime - under economic stress from Western sanctions for years and with nuclear talks stalled - has taken a hardline turn since 2021 and this year has been supplying drones for use by Russia in the Ukraine war.
The people of Iran certainly deserve a more free society and a better political system. There have been rallies in support of the protesters around the world.
There’s no sign yet the protesters will succeed in forcing significant change, and there’s no way of knowing for sure what would follow in the power vacuum.
The best hope might be some form of democratic government, perhaps with a role for moderate clerics, that has a constructive approach internationally. Officials from the era of former president Hassan Rouhani might help to keep politics stable.
More likely a military regime would come in and probably maintain Tehran’s existing rivalry with Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, hostile relations with Israel, and its security links in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Or it could reduce its ambitions and seek better relations with neighbours.
During the Arab Spring, the removal of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt resulted in a short-lived government and then a military coup with a former general, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, becoming president. Despite the jailing of tens of thousands of political prisoners, Egypt has kept its role as an authoritarian Western partner in the Middle East, currently preparing to host COP27 and receiving billions in IMF loans.
Iran could also become a failed state with oil at stake. The killing of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya brought about conflict and anarchy with different countries getting involved. Syria is another nearby country battered by years of civil war and outside military interventions.
However it is resolved, there is much at stake with Iran’s wave of unrest.
