Forecasters say Tropical Cyclone Vaianu could lash parts of the North Island with heavy downpours and damaging gale-force winds on Sunday.
MetService’s latest severe weather outlook warns the system is expected to track south to southeast across the country.
The service says there is high confidence that warning-level rain will hit the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairāwhiti, as well as the ranges of Hawke’s Bay.
There is moderate confidence that heavy rain will also spread from Northland through Waikato and Taupō and south to Wairarapa, the eastern hills of Wellington, the Marlborough Sounds and Kaikōura.
Lower confidence of warning rain remains for the southwest of the North Island, from Waitomo to Kāpiti, and for Fiordland.
Strong winds are also expected to build to severe gale force in exposed parts of the North Island.
Winds are forecast to initially blow from the east to southeast before swinging southwesterly as the cyclone moves south.
The National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) is warning Kiwis to “act now” as Tropical Cyclone Vaianu heads for New Zealand.
MetService modelling shows Vaianu bringing heavy rain and extremely strong winds to parts of the country on Friday and Saturday, with red severe weather warnings possible.
Nema director of civil defence emergency management John Price said people should start preparing now before the storm arrives, as “later could be too late”.
“If you can, make sure drains around your property are clear of waste and debris, and bring inside or tie down anything that strong winds could break or pick up,” he said.
“Trust your danger sense and don’t wait for official warnings. Do not enter floodwaters as they are dangerous and can kill you.”
Price said landslides were an “almost certainty” in some areas, with the ground already saturated after recent heavy rain.
“Watch for warning signs like small slips or rockfalls, water flowing out of a slope, trees or fences that start to tilt, or doors and window frames that begin to stick.
“Also take care around trees, which may become unstable and fall.”
He said the storm would be especially tough for communities still recovering from recent severe weather and urged people to support one another and reach out for help if needed.
Authorities are bracing for a potentially “significant and damaging” storm ahead of the Category 3 cyclone hitting New Zealand.
MetService says the cyclone is expected to first move across the top of the country this weekend, with the entire North Island now under a strong wind watch for 22 hours from 1am to 11pm on Sunday.
Chris Penk, Acting Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery, told the Herald there’s potential for Cyclone Vaianu to be “significant and damaging”.
Fresh out of an emergency ministerial briefing this morning, he said the Government is not taking the storm lightly and neither should Kiwis.
“There’s certainly potential for Vaianu to be significant and damaging.
“It’s unwelcome news for the areas recently affected by bad weather ... just recently, at the start of the year and of course Cyclone Gabrielle and other floods.”
All eyes are on Northland and the upper North Island as the cyclone is expected to reach the top of the country by Saturday.
Speaking to the media this afternoon, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon acknowledged the prospect of Cyclone Vaianu hitting the country.
“It’ll likely have a big impact on the North Island, particularly on Sunday.
“We’re encouraging people to stock up, get supplies and tie things down.”
He said emergency agencies are on full notice and are ready for it.
“It’s important we use the time we’ve got to make sure people are prepared at homes and households.”
Penk told the Herald the potential scale of the storm is “beyond the recent experience coastal and rural communities have recently had”.
“We advise people take reasonable steps and precaution, as has the Government. We aren’t taking this lightly.
“If it isn’t as bad as we think that’s obviously good ... but it’s best to anticipate the worst in this situation.”
MetService has reported on its website that if the cyclone does move across the North Island as expected, “it will bring damaging, potentially life-threatening winds”.
“However, uncertainty remains in the cyclone’s exact track, so the locations of the most severe winds are not yet certain.
“As confidence in the track increases, parts of this [wind] watch will be upgraded to orange or possibly red warnings.
“Vaianu will also bring heavy rain, with heavy rain watches and/or warnings likely to be issued on Thursday for some areas. High chance of upgrading to a warning.”
When asked if the use of “life-threatening winds” is accurate, Penk said he “wouldn’t second-guess the work of meteorologists”.
Earth Science New Zealand (ESNZ, formerly Niwa) forecaster Chester Lampkin told the Herald that “heavy rain is highly likely”.
Rainfall totals exceeding 100mm are expected for many upper North Island locations, with some areas possibly topping 200mm, mainly about foothills and ranges.
“Strong to gale winds are also likely, especially along the coastal areas and in the ranges”, Lampkin said, with isolated severe gales gusting up to 120km/h.
Penk said although Northland was tracked to be the first region in the storm’s firing line, there was potential for it to reach anywhere in New Zealand, including the South Island.
“It’s subject to other weather systems while it makes its way down, so we’ll know closer to Sunday about areas in the south,” the acting minister said.
“It doesn’t look like it will be a particularly long-lived storm, but it certainly seems to me the event will have potential severe impacts.”
MetService reported the cyclone was forecast to move southeast across the North Island towards East Cape by midnight on Sunday, with the potential for severe gales in the Tararua and Manawatū districts.
Giant swells of up to 8m have been forecast from 1am on Sunday, mainly in the east of the Far North, making their way down the east of the country and easing off around Gisborne by Monday afternoon.
Penk said Civil Defence, local help centres and Nema had “prepared well” and the Defence Force had begun proactive planning.
ESNZ would urge caution in comparing this to previous cyclones that have impacted New Zealand, “as this storm will have unique impacts”.
The Far North District Council has set up recovery hubs to support locals affected by recent severe weather, as more rain looms for the area.
Bay of Plenty MP Tom Rutherford said Nema and civil defence emergency management groups were monitoring the situation.
In Whangārei, Mayor Ken Couper said the region is “hanging on by a thread” because it was already recovering from two storms and recent rain.
“We’ve got to be saying to ourselves that the northeast region is hanging by a thread, isn’t it?” Couper said.
“They’re starting to feel the strain and are concerned about what’s coming.”
As Vaianu edges closer, a Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) spokesman in Nadi told the Herald the Category 3 storm has sustained winds of 130km/h at its core and 185km/h gusts, with waves towering more than 8m in some areas.
The last available information showed waves in excess of 8m in the centre and rainfall at more than 50mm – and in some places 100mm – in a 24-hour period, the spokesman said.
“It’s wreaked quite a lot of havoc ... some of our weather systems are also not working properly because we’ve had power outages, so they need to restart.”
The FMS spokesman believed there’s “barely a possibility” of the storm moving to Category 4.
Flash-flood warnings remain in place for mainland Viti Levu and for all low-lying and flood-prone areas.
All schools across Fiji have closed under a Government-led directive, and multiple flights to and from the island nation have been cancelled.
The Fiji Meteorological Service said Vaianu had moved southeast at about 20km/h.
The handover to MetService will be “later this evening”, the spokesman said, when Cyclone Vaianu is expected to reach New Zealand waters.