Thursday, 18 August 2022
Meet the JournalistsPremiumAucklandWellingtonCanterbury/South Island
CrimePoliticsHealthEducationEnvironment and ClimateNZ Herald FocusData journalismKāhu, Māori ContentPropertyWeather
Small BusinessOpinionPersonal FinanceEconomyBusiness TravelCapital Markets
Politics
Premium SportRugbyCommonwealth GamesCricketRacingNetballBoxingLeagueFootballSuper RugbyAthleticsBasketballMotorsportTennisCyclingGolfAmerican SportsHockeyUFC
NZH Local FocusThe Northern AdvocateThe Northland AgeThe AucklanderWaikato HeraldBay of Plenty TimesHawke's Bay TodayRotorua Daily PostWhanganui ChronicleStratford PressManawatu GuardianKapiti NewsHorowhenua ChronicleTe Awamutu Courier
Covid-19
Te Rito
Te Rito
OneRoof PropertyCommercial Property
Open JusticeVideoPodcastsTechnologyWorldOpinion
SpyTVMoviesBooksMusicCultureSideswipeCompetitions
Fashion & BeautyFood & DrinkRoyalsRelationshipsWellbeingPets & AnimalsVivaCanvasEat WellCompetitionsRestaurants & Menus
New Zealand TravelAustralia TravelInternational Travel
Our Green FutureRuralOneRoof Property
Career AdviceCorporate News
Driven MotoringPhotos
SudokuCodecrackerCrosswordsWordsearchDaily quizzes
Classifieds
KaitaiaWhangareiDargavilleAucklandThamesTaurangaHamiltonWhakataneRotoruaTokoroaTe KuitiTaumarunuiTaupoGisborneNew PlymouthNapierHastingsDannevirkeWhanganuiPalmerston NorthLevinParaparaumuMastertonWellingtonMotuekaNelsonBlenheimWestportReeftonKaikouraGreymouthHokitikaChristchurchAshburtonTimaruWanakaOamaruQueenstownDunedinGoreInvercargill
NZ HeraldThe Northern AdvocateThe Northland AgeThe AucklanderWaikato HeraldBay Of Plenty TimesRotorua Daily PostHawke's Bay TodayWhanganui ChronicleThe Stratford PressManawatu GuardianKapiti NewsHorowhenua ChronicleTe Awamutu CourierVivaEat WellOneRoofDriven MotoringThe CountryPhoto SalesNZ Herald InsightsWatchMeGrabOneiHeart RadioRestaurant Hub

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.
New Zealand

Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: NZ's 'winter wave' accelerated by BA.5 variant, could equal March peak - expert

2 Jul, 2022 05:18 AM4 minutes to read
New Zealand wins trade deal with the EU, Covid settings reviewed for winter and property value boom turning to crash in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

New Zealand wins trade deal with the EU, Covid settings reviewed for winter and property value boom turning to crash in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

Tom Dillane
By
Tom Dillane

Tom Dillane is a reporter at the New Zealand Herald

VIEW PROFILE

Covid cases from a new Omicron subvariant are doubling every week and could thrust New Zealand back to our March peak of about 25,000 daily infections, an expert says.

Auckland University senior lecturer in computational evolution Dr David Welch has been mapping the emergence of the BA.5 Omicron subvariant over the past few weeks and observed it is contributing to the first consistent rise in seven-day average Covid numbers in months.

Welch says at this rate the BA.5 Omicron subvariant is appearing as more transmissible and will overtake BA.2 to be the dominant variant in a matter of weeks.

"I'd say it is alarming in the sense there is not a hell of a lot we can do about it at the moment. It has been predicted that we'd be getting a winter wave.

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.

"Modelling had suggested if we carried on with the BA.2 variant, we'd see that wave probably in a couple of months. But with BA.5, which is substantially more transmissible, it seems to have a real growth advantage against the other variants around [and] it's arrived quite a bit earlier."

Welch points out the seven-day rolling average of cases has been consistently declining over the past few months - with a seven-day rolling average well over 20,000 cases in March reducing to under 5000 in late June.

Dr David Welch is a senior lecturer at the University of Auckland's Centre for Computational Evolution and School of Computer Science. Photo / Jed Bradley
Dr David Welch is a senior lecturer at the University of Auckland's Centre for Computational Evolution and School of Computer Science. Photo / Jed Bradley

However, with the emergence of BA.5 case numbers are again on the rise.

There were 6460 new cases of Covid-19 in the community today, and 20 new deaths.

Another 423 people are also in hospital with the virus, including seven in intensive care.

"We've basically seen declining or plateauing cases since the peak of the first wave we had here like in the beginning of March. So this is the first time there's been sustained growth in cases since then," Welch says.

"I guess the question is how quickly will it grow and how high the peak will be?"

Welch says things are "a bit more complex" in terms of modelling a trajectory of case numbers than it was a few months ago, because there is a population mix of vaccinated people with waning immunity and many others who have already been infected.

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.

"It's not easy to model. But it's quite plausible and possible that the peak of this wave will be as high as the peak of the previous wave [March] and that's in the context of a winter flu season going on at the same time.

"Winter respiratory virus fill up the hospitals anyway at this time of the year. Typically hospitals are working at or very near capacity at this time of year. So certainly if a major spike of sickness goes through the community that just puts extra pressure."

The infectious diseases and computational stats expert says the BA.5 subvariant is projected to double its case numbers, relative to BA.2, in New Zealand every six to seven days going forward.

"So basically we were somewhere around 10-15 per cent BA.5 near the beginning of this week. At the start of next week we expect to be somewhere around 30 per cent. And at the start of the following week we expect to be over 50 per cent BA.5.

"So it's sweeping through the country and increasing very quickly and sort of by the end of the month you'd expect nearly all cases to be BA.5."

But Welch wants to remind the public that "we're not helpless in the face of this".

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.

"A lot of people are going to be eligible now to get a [second] booster shot. A lot of people haven't got their third shot, and people who have had their third shot if they're over 50 they're not eligible for their fourth shot.

"A lot of that makes a really big difference to outcomes. It's also a time for people to recognise a wave is coming and I think we've got pretty used to being fairly relaxed about seeing other people. It might just be time to start pulling back a bit."

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand|CrimeUpdated

Two trucks collide, driver dies at scene in Pokeno

17 Aug 09:38 PM
New ZealandUpdated

Wet, warm and windy: Auckland and Northland battered by heavy rain overnight

17 Aug 09:25 PM
Premium
New Zealand

Hamish Clark: Why is Christchurch not a sellout for the All Blacks?

17 Aug 09:00 PM
Kahu

Maori boarding schools get $14.9m for upgrades

17 Aug 09:00 PM
New Zealand

Nukes, allies, weapons and cost: 4 big questions NZ's defence

17 Aug 08:58 PM

Most Popular

Wet, warm and windy: Auckland and Northland battered by heavy rain overnight
New ZealandUpdated

Wet, warm and windy: Auckland and Northland battered by heavy rain overnight

17 Aug 09:25 PM
Nelson to New York: TV's David Lomas and an emotional reunion of long-lost father and son
Entertainment

Nelson to New York: TV's David Lomas and an emotional reunion of long-lost father and son

17 Aug 08:59 PM
Live: 'Frightening, out of control' - Nelson residents flee as river bursts; Auckland also in firing line
New Zealand

Live: 'Frightening, out of control' - Nelson residents flee as river bursts; Auckland also in firing line

17 Aug 08:33 PM

Advertisement

Advertise with NZME.
About NZMEHelp & SupportContact UsSubscribe to NZ HeraldHouse Rules
Manage Your Print SubscriptionNZ Herald E-EditionAdvertise with NZMEBook Your AdPrivacy Policy
Terms of UseCompetition Terms & ConditionsSubscriptions Terms & Conditions
© Copyright 2022 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP