NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Call for mass school vaccinations to counter 'doom and gloom' modelling

Michael  Neilson
By Michael Neilson
Senior political reporter, NZ Herald·NZ Herald·
23 Sep, 2021 05:00 PM11 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

September 23 2021 A high vaccination rate would be a "golden ticket" for New Zealand and make level 4 lockdowns a thing of the past, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says. Ardern's comment followed the announcement of 15 new Covid-19 cases in the community.

COVID LATEST
* Huge increase on Aucklanders out on the roads on first day of level 3
* Cambridge man arrested for faking positive Covid-19 test
* 10 of the biggest vaccine myths debunked
* Expert calls new Covid-19 modelling 'overcooked' and 'rushed'

The National Party is calling for mass vaccinations in schools in light of new data that signals at least 85 per cent of the overall population needs to be vaccinated against Covid-19 to avoid lockdowns and thousands of deaths.

The new modelling report has indicated New Zealand's death toll from Covid-19 could fall lower than that from seasonal flu - or it could soar in the thousands - depending on how high the country can lift its vaccination rate.

University of Auckland epidemiologist Janine Paynter says the science of modelling is a very good way to help decide what to do - and told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking the model released yesterday is pretty good.

The assumptions made in the model - such as different rates of testing, tracing and isolating - were good, which gave her reassurance that the model was robust. It also used real-world data from the UK to do with vaccine effectiveness.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Some people might hear the model's predictions and be motivated to get a jab, while others might be scared. The alternative message was reassurance: "This is what we can achieve if we vaccinate."

National's Covid-19 spokesman, Chris Bishop, said the modelling made it clear the vaccination rate needed to go as high and as fast as possible.

With the 12-15 age group the last to become eligible, Bishop said to boost the overall rates the Government should be rapidly investigating how to start vaccinating in schools.

LISTEN LIVE ON NEWSTALK ZB:

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Currently just 9 per cent of those aged 12 to 19 are fully vaccinated, compared with the overall rate of 40 per cent.

"We should be planning mass vaccination clinics in our schools before the end of the year," Bishop said.

"Every extra person adds to that overall rate."

On consent issues, Bishop said it should be no different than other vaccinations that have occurred in schools.

Discover more

New Zealand

The 90% Project: How to convince a hesitant family member to get the vaccine

23 Sep 05:00 PM
New Zealand

Covid whoppers: 10 of the biggest vaccine myths debunked

23 Sep 05:00 PM
Opinion

Opinion: Why NZ feels frozen in time in its fight against Covid

23 Sep 11:00 PM
Politics

Michael Baker on the Government's 'less cautious' plan to reopen borders

29 Sep 11:00 PM

The Government has not signalled any intention to roll out vaccinations in schools this year.

The National Party's leader, Judith Collins, and its Covid-19 response spokesman, Chris Bishop. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The National Party's leader, Judith Collins, and its Covid-19 response spokesman, Chris Bishop. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The modelling, by Professor Shaun Hendy and Te Pūnaha Matatini researchers, suggests vaccinations alone won't be enough to keep the virus at bay and public health measures would still be needed.

With the Pfizer vaccine expected to be approved soon for use in children aged 5 to 11, the modelling found this could lift overall coverage as high as 90 per cent – the threshold at the centre of a new Herald campaign.

The modelling from Hendy came with troubling figures around what could happen if vaccine uptake – around 40 per cent of eligible people have so far received both doses, and 35 per cent one dose only – fell lower than 90 per cent of those aged over 5, or about 85 per cent of the total population.

Even at 80 per cent coverage of over-5s, and assuming only baseline public health measures and limited test-trace-isolate-quarantine, the modelling carried a median estimate of 1.1 million infections, around 60,000 hospitalisations and nearly 7000 deaths – all within just a year.

At 90 per cent, however, the modelling pointed to 171,000 infections – but only around 6000 hospitalisations, just over 600 deaths, and 438 beds occupied.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The picture changed again when the modellers assumed that full test-trace-isolate-quarantine measures were possible, along with baseline public health measures.

In this case, median estimates showed that vaccinating 90 per cent of over-5s could keep infection totals as low as around 13,000 – with around 470 hospitalisations and just 50 deaths.

The modelling has faced some scrutiny, with modeller Rodney Jones telling Newstalk ZB the numbers were "overcooked" and didn't factor in enough of the health restrictions that would likely be in place.

"Going with sensational numbers is not helpful, we need hope, start the process with a realistic assessment."

Jones compared the situation with Singapore, with a similar population and where restrictions had been loosened with full vaccination rates around 80 per cent, and 11 deaths in the past month.

Hendy defended the modelling, saying it was specific to New Zealand's own health risks and health system.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Britain is immunising children aged 12 to 15 to slow disruptions to education. There is no sign of plans to introduce vaccinations in schools here. Photo / Getty Images
Britain is immunising children aged 12 to 15 to slow disruptions to education. There is no sign of plans to introduce vaccinations in schools here. Photo / Getty Images

For example, Singapore has about three times the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds per capita.

Singapore had also been at a form of level 2 restrictions, or higher.

"These [higher numbers] are long-term predictions based on completely opening up and not using adequate health measures. Singapore had to put restrictions in, stronger than we are talking about [in our models]."

Hendy said it was also difficult to compare with Britain, where they were implementing a high level of extra health measures and there was a level of natural immunity in the community due to how long the virus had been present.

Immunologist Graham Le Gros told the AM Show that Hendy's modelling was a projection and we didn't really know how the virus would impact in a vaccinated community.

Le Gros said based on the way the virus was being managed overseas in vaccinated communities this gave us an idea what it could look like.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

He said we didn't know how it would work in New Zealand as we couldn't really compare ourselves with other countries. For example, we didn't have mass transport systems as in Singapore.

He said vaccine trials were looking positive for children.

This would give us an opportunity to get rates up to 95 per cent coverage.

He said while parents were always worried about what went into our children, Delta was so potent it was necessary to guard against the ravages of the virus.

Māori and Pasifika people appeared to be particularly susceptible to Covid and there were many ways to deal with protecting against the virus, including antibody therapies.

He believed that New Zealand could get to 95 per cent vaccination coverage and lead the world.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

University of Canterbury mathematician Associate Professor Alex James said the work presented the "absolute worst-case scenario".

"It's possible to take a more optimistic approach, in particular looking at countries like Denmark that have more realistic and achievable levels of vaccination."

The idea of a 90 per cent target has also drawn renewed calls for a focus on equity.

The vaccine rollout has implicitly prioritised European/Other ethnicity through age prioritisation, meaning rates of fully vaccinated Māori and Pasifika are 40 per cent and 16 per cent respectively behind the overall rate.

Meanwhile, modelling on the initial Covid variant found that at a population level, Māori could be twice as likely to die from the virus, and were more likely to catch it.

Further research released in July by Te Pūnaha Matatini found Māori and Pasifika were twice as likely as Asian people and New Zealand European/Other to be hospitalised from Covid-19.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Even after factoring in underlying health conditions, Māori and Pasifika were at the same risk of hospitalisation 20 and 25 years earlier respectively than Pākehā.

Public health expert Dr Rhys Jones said all decisions should be based on how they impact on the most seriously affected groups.

"For example, any moves to 'open up' while we still have very low vaccine coverage among Māori communities would be not just unethical, but genocidal," Jones said.

"There absolutely needs to be a commitment from the Government that it would not scale back restrictions until high-risk populations are as fully vaccinated as possible.

"That means Māori, Pasifika, disabled people, and others – all of these groups must have as close to 100 per cent vaccine coverage as possible before any loosening of restrictions could be considered."

Māori health researcher Dr Rawiri Taonui says a 90 per cent vaccination rate is the best-case scenario and means less risk for Māori.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But the 50 estimated deaths per year, with 90 per cent of the population vaccinated, would highly likely be a large proportion of Māori, Taonui told TVNZ's Breakfast programme.

Speaking about young children - aged 5 to 12 years - getting the vaccine, he said it was important we make sure it was safe for them to get it in the first place.

What experts do know at this stage, is that the Pfizer vaccine produced "really good results" for those young people aged 12 to 19 years.

The Delta variant is impacting young people around the world more than other variants, he said.

"One of the features of Delta is there's a higher rate of long-term effects - what they call long Covid - in young people."

That presented a "huge" risk to the Māori and Pacific communities in this current outbreak in particular, he said, who had been heavily impacted in the Auckland outbreak.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Taonui said there continues to be low trust associated with the Government system among Māori.

He acknowledged that was an issue that may be affecting low vaccination rates among Māori.

But he said it is important for the vaccines to be taken into the communities so people felt safe to get it together with their community or whānau - rather than expecting people to turn up to vaccination clinics individually.

"Roll it out to the whānau," Taonui said.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said reaching a high vaccination rate meant across all ages, towns and cities and ethnicities, all as a means to break chains of transmission.

She described the modelling and ability to reduce restrictions at higher levels of vaccination as a hopeful future, with the aim to become the most vaccinated population in the globe.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Here is our chance to lead the world again," she said.

"Get vaccinated. It's the reason we should all feel hopeful."

Meanwhile, 15 new Covid-19 cases in Auckland were reported on Thursday, the second day the city has spent at alert level 3. Two of these were unlinked cases.

The Government yesterday also announced more Covax doses have been donated to Samoa, which will receive 25,000 doses, and Indonesia, which will receive 683,000 doses, to be delivered to the countries next month.

These doses are in addition to our existing donation of 1.668 million AstraZeneca doses to Covax, announced earlier in the year.

Getting nurses to NZ

READ THE HERALD'S FULL STORY ON NURSES HERE

Andrew Stapleton, chairman of the NZ College of Intensive Care Medicine, says 25 per cent of New Zealand's ICU nurses come from overseas.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Capacity had not increased in the last 18 months, he said. There were now 550 ICU beds which would be enough if the population was highly vaccinated.

That needed to be over 95 per cent vaccination. "We haven't got our heads around 95 per cent but we're going to have to."

He was heartened to see Pfizer's vaccine had been extended to younger age groups - he would be first in line to get his own children vaccinated.

If hospital capacity didn't increase, strong public health measures would be required.

ICU nurses are not on New Zealander's critical skills shortage list. Their visas did not let them through any faster than anyone else, and it was difficult to bring their families with them.

Vice President of the Intensive Care Society in Australia, Mark Nicholls, said capacity had increased in Australia.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Vaccination rates were also increasing and people were also following public health rules.

Decent ICU capacity meant people were less likely to die - but he was not a modelling specialist. "What has been critical - because we've not been able to control the Delta in the community - is we've had the vaccination rates rapidly increase."

Delta was like a wave - the way to decrease the size of the wave was vaccination and following public health rules. THat meant there would not be too many patients coming in to meet ICU capacity

- Additional reporting Jamie Morton

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

Premium
Opinion

Simon Wilson: David Seymour has made a mess of almost everything he's touched

02 Jul 12:10 PM
New Zealand

'Really struggling': Power rationing becomes norm for some pensioners

02 Jul 08:29 AM
New Zealand

'We might have lost him': Gisborne boy suffers another setback in cancer battle

02 Jul 08:00 AM

There’s more to Hawai‘i than beaches and buffets – here’s how to see it differently

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

Premium
Simon Wilson: David Seymour has made a mess of almost everything he's touched

Simon Wilson: David Seymour has made a mess of almost everything he's touched

02 Jul 12:10 PM

OPINION: If Seymour was serious about getting things done, he'd have a different record.

'Really struggling': Power rationing becomes norm for some pensioners

'Really struggling': Power rationing becomes norm for some pensioners

02 Jul 08:29 AM
'We might have lost him': Gisborne boy suffers another setback in cancer battle

'We might have lost him': Gisborne boy suffers another setback in cancer battle

02 Jul 08:00 AM
Premium
Asterisks, footnotes and claims of 'weasel words': Inside the battle for region's housing future

Asterisks, footnotes and claims of 'weasel words': Inside the battle for region's housing future

02 Jul 07:00 AM
From early mornings to easy living
sponsored

From early mornings to easy living

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP