Prime minister Jacinda Ardern with the "literally off the charts" graph on August 30. Photo / Robert Kitchin, pool photo
Prime minister Jacinda Ardern with the "literally off the charts" graph on August 30. Photo / Robert Kitchin, pool photo
ANALYSIS:
Three times in a week Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern delivered the difficult message that the Government would extend lockdown restrictions. At each of these press conferences, there was a moment when she lifted a piece of paper from her podium, revealing a data graphic to the room. Widely discussedand shared through both traditional and social media, these scrappy A3 bits of paper have proven powerful props.
Maps and graphs are trusted forms of communication. Maps help us understand and navigate unfamiliar territory. Graphs transform raw data into patterns, trends and insights. From a young age, we are taught to respect and rely upon information graphics. Their innate credibility ensures they become potent tools when leveraged to promote an idea or message.
With one exception, Ardern's deployment of data graphics as visual aids during these conferences is a masterclass in political persuasion. She reassures in one breath; convinces with the next. These analogue printouts reinforce that these decisions are supported by scientific evidence.
Presumably, a slick video presentation could have been arranged, but this would have been a mistake. Animated graphics would have lent a distant corporate feel. There is something very human about a Prime Minister holding up a lo-fi printout before a room of reporters.
"This heatmap shows the locations of our known contacts and, as you can see, they are certainly not isolated to one part of New Zealand."
She was right. We could see it. Her words explained the map, which reinforced her words.
The screenshots and professional photographs that circulated after the press event provided greater detail, doubling-down on the message. Heavy concentrations in Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Kāpiti and Wellington with contacts in Taupō, Hawke's Bay, New Plymouth, Whanganui, Nelson-Marlborough, Christchurch, Dunedin, Queenstown and Invercargill. Nearly every major settlement was covered.
The image of the Prime Minister literally holding the country in her hands as she speaks to the nation has become one of the outbreak's most recognised images. The map did its job.
The skyrocketing peaks graph, August 27 — Day 10 of lockdown
70 new community cases, bringing total number in the community outbreak to 347
Auckland and Northland remain in level 4, with an update on Monday, August 30
Regions south of Auckland will move to alert level 3 at 11:59pm on Tuesday, August 31
The graph presented by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on August 27. Photo / Supplied
Deep into question time, a journalist asked the Prime Minister how vaccine supply would keep up with increasing vaccination rates. Ardern provided a broad response to the supply question, offering to provide an update the following week, quickly pivoting to vaccination rates.
"You know that I love to hold up a good graph. Just for the memes."
The remark earned a chuckle from the audience while serving as a seamless shift to more stable ground. It recalled a style of stage magic where the magician tells the audience they are performing a trick without revealing how it works.
This is a peculiar graph. It compares daily vaccine doses in New Zealand against Australia, Canada, the US and the UK. Daily doses are shown as a percentage of the population and are smoothed with a seven-day rolling average. These are standard statistical procedures allowing comparison between large and small countries.
Things get weird on the horizontal axis. The graph forgoes conventional calendar representation and instead shifts the timelines so each country's peak lines up. This contorts the data into the best possible shape without technically misrepresenting it.
Here is the same data plotted against a standard calendar timeline.
Using a traditional timeline, it is clear that New Zealand and Australia lag behind the other nations. New Zealand currently has the highest daily vaccination rate among these five countries but we also have the most ground to make up.
The "literally off the charts" graph, August 30 — Day 10 of lockdown
53 new community cases, bringing total number in the community outbreak to 547
Auckland lockdown extended for at least a fortnight
Northland will likely drop to alert level 3 at 11:59pm on Thursday, September 2
Regions south of Auckland will move to alert level 3 at 11:59pm on Tuesday, August 31
Prime minister Jacinda Ardern with the "literally off the charts" graph on August 30. Photo / Robert Kitchin, pool photo
Monday's press conference held mixed news. Decreasing daily community case numbers indicated lockdown was having a positive impact on infection rates and Northland would drop to level 3 on Thursday night. However, Auckland could expect at least another two weeks of lockdown.
Toward the end of her prepared remarks, Ardern emphasised the risk the Delta variant presents. For the third time in a week, she lifted an A3 sheet of paper from the lectern to reveal a data graphic.
This chart showed several daily case number projections from several simulations.
"The red line shows what would have happened if we hadn't moved hard and fast into level 4. [...] It tells us that the daily case numbers are literally off the charts."
The Prime Minister acknowledged the chart's details were hard to read and provided few insights into what the various lines represented. There is no way to assess the veracity of the chart's claims. Ardern did not reveal who produced the various models nor what the criteria were.
This third chart falls between the other two in terms of quality. It lacks the transparent simplicity of the heatmap. Yet it does not twist the data into dubious shapes as did the skyrocketing peaks chart.
Ultimately, the chart succeeds as a persuasive visual aid. There is an implicit suggestion that Cabinet's decisions are based on scientific evidence. It also illustrates the notion that there are many possible futures. Without swift lockdown, case numbers would climb steeply.
To varying degrees, these pieces of paper have proven important elements in the Government's lockdown communications. They are most successful when the message is simple and immediate. Their value extends beyond informational content and into the realm of the symbolic. Subtle narrative props in the hands of a master communicator.
