New Zealand should not take in more travellers from high-risk countries and should consider closing some of its managed isolation facilities, a leading epidemiologist says.
Professor Michael Baker, who supports the start of a transtasman bubble, said once Australians were able to travel to this countrywithout having to go into managed isolation there would be some "potential unintended adverse effects".
The main one, he told RNZ, was that once the bubble is operating, and Australian travellers did not need to go into managed isolation, 40 per cent of places within the MIQ system would then be available to travellers from "red zone" countries with high case numbers, increasing the risk of border failures and outbreaks.
Baker said one option was to reduce MIQ capacity by 40 per cent.
"We're still taking the same number of people from the red zone countries as we are now and our level of risk would not increase if we did that. And actually we could obviously save some resources - perhaps close some of the MIQ facilities in Auckland where the consequences of an outbreak are much worse.
"I think this is a time when we do need to think in a very strategic way how to manage risk for New Zealand for the next few months."
Opening the borders in a limited way was still "a calculated risk" but the world needed more successful collaborations between countries.
Professor Michael Baker says New Zealand could consider reducing MIQ capacity by 40 per cent. Photo / Supplied
About 20 per cent of the world is protected with the Covid-19 elimination strategy, thanks mostly to the success of the Asia Pacific region, Baker said.
"I think there is the hope of progressive elimination and even the potential for global eradication."
It would be a huge upside globally if New Zealand, Australia and Pacific countries could set an example for operating a safe travel model.
"I think again we can be world leaders on this."
Baker believes it is the right time to reopen the border to Australians, because the country could have a lot more confidence in how we manage Covid-19 with public health measures, including identifying outbreaks while they were still small and controlling them. Another plus was that vaccines for border workers were being rolled out in both countries.
"We've got a lot more tools now and understanding."
Once an outbreak moved beyond border workers or MIQ guests, and there was transmission in the community or an outbreak became hard to manage, then both countries will be looking at immediate border closures, Baker said.
"On both sides of the Tasman, at a state level over there, or at a country level here, you're going to close the borders I think at this stage."
Cabinet ministers are expected to consider a start date for a transtasman travel bubble with Australia on Monday. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Baker agreed that transtasman travellers needed to be aware they would need to be able to support themselves in the event of a closure and if they couldn't return on their intended date.
He said New Zealand needed to be cautious about bringing in Singapore, which would add another layer of complexity.
It would be preferable to have the Pacific model working well before Asian countries were added.
New Zealand needed to "think creatively" on its vaccine strategy to achieve the greatest protection, Baker said, and one option would be to vaccinate everyone who was going overseas short-term to countries with a high number of cases.
The latest Ministry of Health figures which showed that only 63 per cent of people were receiving their test results within 24 hours showed there was room for improvement, Baker said. The ministry's goal is 80 per cent.
He said a very high numbers of tests put pressure on the system, however the number one message remained that if people had cold or flu symptoms they must isolate, get advice from Healthline and get tested as quickly as possible.
Yesterday, the Government said 10 new Covid cases had been reported over the past two days, all in managed isolation. The new cases are from India, America, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea and Portugal.
