Hawke’s Bay weather: Cooler mid-summer week contrasts with hotter 2025

A cloudy day at Waipātiki Beach. MetService forecasts a cool and cloudy week with rain and southeasterly winds after recent thunderstorms. Photo / Chris Hyde

Hawke’s Bay is in for a cool, cloudy and unsettled stretch this week, as southeasterlies and onshore systems linger over the region.

The forecast follows last week’s thunderstorms and a shift from the hotter, drier-than-usual conditions recorded across much of 2025.

According to MetService, temperatures are expected to return closer to average later this week, but the weather will remain unsettled.

“It’s been colder recently because high pressure to the southwest of the South Island ... has been drawing cooler southerly and southeasterly winds across the region,” MetService meteorologist Alanna Burrows told Hawke’s Bay Today.

The week began with scattered showers and more persistent rain inland, with the pattern continuing into today, turning into periods of rain, possibly heavy about the ranges.

On Wednesday, the Bay can expect a few spots of rain during the day that are forecast to become more persistent and heavier overnight.

Thursday is forecast to bring widespread rain, potentially heavy at times, before easing in the evening.

Friday should see a brief break, with only a few afternoon or evening showers, but a period of rain is expected on Saturday, followed by rain easing to showers on Sunday.

Temperatures across the region this week are expected to range from 12C in Hastings on Sunday to 27C in Napier on Friday.

MetService said although heavy rain and strong winds are possible, no thunderstorm risks are in place for Hawke’s Bay at this stage.

While this week feels cooler, Burrows said January has been wetter and hotter than average in parts of the region.

“Napier has seen 67.6mm already this month so far, higher than January 2025 month’s total of 52mm and January Climate Average Rainfall of 56.7mm.”

Burrows said January had hotter days when compared with last year. Napier recorded 36.3C on January 11.

“Whereas in January 2025, the max temp for Napier only reached 31C.”

Earlier this month, Te Mata Park and Pan Pac forest tracks were closed as a precaution because of the region’s soaring temperatures, which included a forecast for Hastings of 38C.

Burrows said it was too soon to draw broader climate conclusions.

Looking back at last year’s weather, Earth Sciences New Zealand’s annual climate summary reported 2025 as New Zealand’s fourth-warmest year on record.

The nationwide average temperature sat 0.77C above the long-term norm.

Napier recorded the country’s second-highest temperature of the year, reaching 33.8C on December 8, surpassed only by Kawerau’s peak of 35.6C.

“It is uncommon for New Zealand’s highest temperature of the year to occur in December; the last time this happened was in 2015,” the summary read.

Rainfall patterns across the region were also notable.

Hawke’s Bay was among the areas to record below-normal annual rainfall in 2025, with totals sitting at between 50% and 79% of typical levels.

However, by the end of the year, soil moisture levels had shifted, with coastal parts of the region wetter than normal after rain events.