“Overshoot refers to the idea that the countries of the world have not done enough and that warming is going to exceed 1.5°C, or maybe even 2°C.
“So the idea there is that could happen, but provided we can cool things off again fairly quickly, what is the actual trajectory that the Earth’s on in terms of temperature rise? And what can we do about cooling things down?
“Last year was the first year [that went] more than 1.5°C above preindustrial, but that’s not quite the end of the story. You really need an average of 10 years above 1.5 before you can say for sure we’ve broken through that limit, and we’re not quite there yet. We’re at about 1.3°C.
“But, the way things are going, we will be there by the end of this decade,” he said.
Renwick said the world should have got serious about the effects of climate change decades ago.
“There was already plenty of warning back in the 1980s, but the status quo has an awful lot of power behind it.
“Governments are reluctant to really act, and I think governments, policymakers, don’t quite believe or they don’t feel it. They might know the facts, but they don’t have the emotional response that you really need before you take something important on board.
“But it’s gonna take some major extreme events in some well-resourced, rich countries, maybe a whole lot of deaths and destruction, before governments really take it on board that this actually is important, is affecting our economy and our lifestyles.
“I don’t want to wish extremes and death and destruction on people, but it doesn’t seem as though anything else, any of the science, really tells the story.
“The pace of change has been so slow. It’s been impossible to even see in the last few decades that I really wonder when we’ll get onto it,” he said.
China recently pledged, for the first time, to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. This includes expanding wind and solar capacity, increasing non-fossil fuel energy share, and ramping up electric vehicle sales.
But it still falls short of the 30% cuts some observers say are needed for 1.5°C.
“It’s going in the right direction,” Renwick said, “but it’s way too slow.
“China is the biggest emitter globally, so if they did that, it would still be a win. But we need every other bigger and smaller emitter to do the same,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters recently made headlines at the UN by stating that the world’s four biggest emitters – China, India, Russia, and the US – bear the brunt of responsibility, comprising about 60% of global emissions.
He urged leaders to “face the elephant in the room” and described the situation as “a battle we can’t possibly win”.
Donald Trump told UN members that climate change was “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world”.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about shifts in the climate conversation and what humanity needs to do to stop climate change.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
